Punchbowl:
Under this scenario, Democrats would provide enough votes to overcome a filibuster in exchange for Republicans allowing an amendment vote on Murray’s April 11 CR. This would fail, but Democrats could use it to show that they voted for their own funding plan.
At that point, final passage of the House’s CR would be set at a simple majority, and Republicans could pass it without requiring Democratic help.
That’s not to say this is definitely the path Democrats will take. And even if they do, Republicans could reject their demand for an amendment vote. But it’s one of many potential face-saving options that could, in theory, insulate Democrats from backlash from the left, which is a concern for them.
Democratic senators have also been weighing — both publicly and privately — their fears that a shutdown would be a disaster not only for the country, but for them politically. Democrats have said a shutdown would only empower Trump further, and there would be no clear path to reopen the government.
Of course, the reason for posturing is to get your hopes up before dashing them. Ask Charlie Brown to kick a football down the road. And as the pieces below note, there are legit concerns that since President Musk doesn’t care if the gubment ever opens, there’s less leverage than usual.
It’s probably all posturing to think Senate Ds will stand up for democracy and Congressional rights. But if Rs are blaming D’s in advance, just maybe…
Brian Beutler/Off Message:
The Long Tail Of Failed Leadership
In the vacuum, Republicans got their act together and backed Democrats into a corner. Dems now enter a government shutdown fight unprepared.
House Republicans managed to line up all the votes they needed Tuesday to pass a partisan continuing resolution—that is, a bill to continue funding the federal government through the end of the fiscal year. No mechanisms to make Donald Trump comply with the law, several right-wing goodies as inducements to drive party unity.
A blank check for Elon Musk.
This exemplifies the power of lib-owning and the Trump cult in the year 2025. Republicans basically never keep it together when they try to pass partisan spending legislation. But this time, Trump begged Republicans—he literally wrote, “All Republicans should vote (Please!) YES next week," on his social media website—to supplement his threats to support Republican primary challenges. And so they fell into line.
This changes the game theory in the Senate, because there’s suddenly a viable bill at hand to fund the government, and Senate passage is the only hurdle it faces. If 50 or more Republican senators are willing to vote for it, then the only obstacle is the filibuster. Assuming that’s where things land by week’s end, Republicans will be able to barnstorm the country claiming (correctly, if tendentiously) that Democrats filibustered the government into a shutdown.
Does it change the game theory enough that Democrats should change strategic course?
Yes and no. I’ll explain below.
Trump is a supremacist. That’s what he wants. That’s what MAGA voters want. The rest of the Trump voters just want lower prices. Three New York Times articles highlight that folks around the world still don’t get it:
Markets are also partisan ideology-driven, to an extent. At least, futures are.
Well, they got that one right.
Dan Pfeiffer/The Message Box:
Why Democrats Shouldn't Fear the Politics of a Shutdown
Some fights are worth having even if victory isn't assured
People are angry and scared. They are looking for someone, anyone, to step up. This is why Senator Chris Murphy became a party hero, and thousands flocked to see Bernie Sanders in Iowa and Michigan.
If you are a regular listener of Pod Save America, you may have noticed my inconsistent thoughts on the question. A few weeks ago, I argued that Democrats could not — and should not — vote for anything that didn’t prohibit Musk from unilaterally shutting down government agencies. Last week, after interviewing several Senate Democrats on the night of Trump’s joint address, I softened my stance.
Some Senate Democrats are scared of the fight and would prefer to roll over and play dead. But many others want a strategy and are considering whether a shutdown would actually help Musk accomplish his goals of gutting the federal government. A shutdown only works as a point of leverage if Trump et al feel pressure to reopen the government. If they plan to destroy the government or are content to let the government stay closed for as long as possible, the plan is useless.
...
This is not to say that Democrats could not win this fight or that they shouldn’t take it, but serious, substantive considerations shouldn’t be dismissed as cowardice. Having said all that, Democrats shouldn’t be so scared of the politics.
Paul Waldman/The Cross Section:
The War on Tesla Is Good for America
Begun, this new culture war has.
But if electric cars were cool, anyone might buy them, not just California hippies. And as someone who was developing what would eventually become an epic addiction to attention, Musk saw selling his own image as a way to sell Teslas. For a while, that worked quite well; people viewed him as brilliant, creative, futuristic, and yes, cool, and that’s what Teslas evoked. That image resonated even with liberals, who hadn’t yet been exposed to the more rancid parts of his personality that we’re all witnessing now; he just seemed like an innovator who wanted to solve climate change (a problem that today he no longer cares about).
But then Musk bought Twitter and turned it into a festering cauldron of far-right hate speech; delivered unto the world the Cybertruck, the world’s most loathsome and pathetic vehicle; and began his own personal and very public journey toward the extreme right, culminating in his effort to get Trump elected and then dismantle everything worthwhile the federal government does, while he goes around throwing up Nazi salutes. Liberals and even some centrist normies who own Teslas are feeling increasingly besieged and embarrassed; now, rather than communicating “I’m cool and forward-looking, and I care about climate change,” owning a Tesla says “I may be a right-wing asshole.”
Bolts magazine with two local looks at voting rights erosion:
Alex Burness:
Utah Was a Rare Red State to Champion Mail Voting. That Era Is Likely Ending.
Inspired by the architects of Project 2025, the Utah legislature adopted a Republican bill to end universal mail voting and impose new restrictions on absentee ballots.
An old-fashioned, four-legged polling booth is on display in the lobby of the Salt Lake County clerk’s office. Its metal frame roughened and its red, white, and blue privacy curtain wrinkled, it’s a reminder of what voting in Utah looked like in the time before drop boxes for mail ballots and computerized tabulators.
Lannie Chapman, the county clerk who runs this office and serves as the top elections official in Utah’s most populous county, eyed the artifact and considered how different, and difficult, her work would be if the state ever went back to voting the way it did when the old booth was in use.
“No, thank you,” she said at the prospect, laughing. “It’s fun for a photo op, but that’s about it.”
The hypothetical may be a bit too close for comfort. A few miles up the road from Chapman’s Salt Lake City office, at the Utah State Capitol, lawmakers have just put the finishing touches on a major voting-system overhaul: House Bill 300, which passed the Republican-controlled legislature March 6, would end universal vote-by-mail in Utah.
Daniel Nichanian:
“It Just Feels Like Death”: Barrage of New Rules Target Arkansas Ballot Initiatives
Faced with popular initiatives to protect abortion rights and other measures they dislike, state Republicans are passing new bills that local advocates say will hollow out direct democracy.
Organizers in Arkansas already face this mountain of technical rules to satisfy—down to the color of the ink that notaries public must use on petitions. But now, the state is about to make this obstacle course even tougher.
The GOP-run legislature this spring is advancing at least six bills containing a barrage of additional rules that canvassers will need to follow. The new rules give state officials even more excuses to toss initiatives, and they explicitly strengthen the attorney general and secretary of state‘s powers to stall or block proposals. Arkansans with experience collecting signatures also worry that the increased threat of criminal penalties may intimidate citizens from canvassing and signing in the first place.
