As the federal government hurtles toward a shutdown that would begin at 12:01 AM ET on Saturday, some may be wondering how a shutdown could impact the already fragile federal government.
When the government shuts down, federal workers are furloughed until Congress passes a spending bill and the president signs it.
According to the nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, each federal agency, along with the Office of Management and Budget, creates a plan for what services are deemed essential during a shutdown, which determines which workers must continue to show up to work and which stay home.
"The plan identifies which government activities may not continue until appropriations are restored, requiring furloughs and the halting of many agency activities. Essential services—many of which are related to public safety—continue to operate, with payments covering any obligations incurred only when appropriations are enacted," the CRFB wrote. "In prior shutdowns, border protection, in-hospital medical care, air traffic control, law enforcement, and power grid maintenance have been among the services classified as essential, while some legislative and judicial staff have also been largely protected."
Russ Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget
However, The Washington Post reported that the Trump administration has taken down guidance from the former Biden administration about the government's plans during a shutdown. And given that President Donald Trump, co-President Elon Musk, and OMB Director Russ Vought are on a crusade against the federal workforce, it's unclear whether they'd use a shutdown to inflict more pain on government workers.
A federal law passed in 2019 says that federal workers must receive back pay when the government reopens, whether or not they were deemed essential. But since taking office for the second time, Trump has been ignoring federal law as he sees fit, so he could seek to challenge this.
Ultimately, Democrats argue that Trump and Musk have basically shut down critical functions of the government already through cuts made by the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, and thus a shutdown wouldn't have as much of an impact.
It's why almost all House Democrats voted against the funding bill that Republicans crafted without any Democratic input and passed on Tuesday. Democrats wanted assurances in the legislation that Trump and Musk would not simply ignore the spending directives that Congress passes. Republican leaders even sold the bill to its members by saying that the spending amounts laid out don't matter because Trump and Musk will ignore them anyway.
Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia
And it's why a number of Senate Democrats say they will not vote for it when it comes before their chamber.
"I will be voting NO on the CR," Sen. Mark Warner, Democrat of Virginia, wrote in a post on X. "Virginians deserve more than letting Elon & Trump run wild through our government, slashing jobs and cutting services. Let’s pass a 30-day extension and get an actual deal done."
Trump and Musk have canceled billions of dollars in government contracts, attempted to cut medical research grants, laid off thousands of federal workers, and even virtually shuttered a federal agency—despite the fact that Congress specifically funded those items. The cuts have thrust the country into a constitutional crisis, with Trump seizing Congress' power of the purse and ignoring court orders to fund what Congress demanded.
The head of the American Federation of Government Employees, one of largest federal worker unions, said that because Trump and Musk basically shuttered parts of the government already, a shutdown would not have a major impact.
"With thousands of federal workers either fired, placed on administrative leave, or at immediate risk of losing their jobs, AFGE members have concluded that a widespread government shutdown has been underway since January 20 and will continue to spread whether Senators vote yes or no" on the House-passed funding bill, Everett B. Kelley, wrote in the letter obtained by Talking Points Memo.
For now, Senate Democrats are demanding that Republicans put a short-term, 30-day funding bill on the floor so that they can negotiate on a longer-term, bipartisan funding bill without having a shutdown. But Republicans are unlikely to agree to that proposal, raising the possibility that the government will indeed shut down.
To be sure, some Senate Democrats fear the politics of a shutdown, and for that reason, they could vote yes on the funding bill.
However, the 2026 midterm elections are a lifetime away in political terms.
Past government shutdowns that Republicans forced had little electoral impact on them.
For example, Republicans shut the government down in October 2013 for 16 days, as Republicans waged a ridiculous effort to defund the Affordable Care Act. Polling at the time showed that a majority of voters blamed Republicans for the shutdown, and that the stunt hurt the Republican Party's image. However, a year later, Republicans went on to win control of the Senate and extend their majority in the House in the 2014 midterms.
In 2018, Trump forced what became one of the longest government shutdowns in history after he demanded funding for his border wall that he had always claimed Mexico would pay for. Yet Republicans did fine in House contests in the 2020 election.
"Senate Democrats are debating whether to vote for a bill that keeps Donald Trump and Elon Musk's government open and prevents Congress from challenging Trump's national sales tax. There are real substantive concerns about a shutdown, but Dems shouldn't fear the politics," Dan Pfeiffer, a former senior adviser to former President Barack Obama, wrote in a post on X.
The countdown until 12:01 AM ET on Saturday ticks on.
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