You may have never heard of George C. Parker, Soapy Smith, Joseph “Yellow Kid” Weil, Victor Lustig, Frank Abagnale Jr., or Christian Karl Gerhartsreiter. However, when the list is expanded to include Charles Ponzi—the originator of the infamous Ponzi scheme—and Bernie Madoff, who orchestrated the largest one in U.S. history, their shared character traits come into sharper focus. (See the postscript for more information about their cons.)
These men are cut from the same cloth as William Thompson, who operated in New York City in the 1840s. Thompson would approach well-dressed men and strike up a conversation, pretending to know them. After gaining their trust, he would ask, “Have you the confidence in me to lend me your watch until tomorrow?” Many obliged. Of course, he never returned the watch. Thompson was arrested and imprisoned in The Tombs in 1849. Due to his skill in exploiting his marks’ trust, “The New York Herald” dubbed him the “confidence man” in their reporting. Thompson even inspired Herman Melville’s 1857 novel, “The Confidence-Man: His Masquerade,” which explored themes of trust, deception, identity, and evil in American society.
“Con man” is short for “confidence man”—a swindler who gains the trust of their victims to deceive or defraud them.
Thinking about confidence men brings to mind the 1967 song “Flim Flam Man” by Laura Nyro (though I initially confused it with Bread’s 1972 “Guitar Man”). In Nyro’s lyrics, she sings, “He’s the one in the Trojan horse making out like he’s Santa Claus. / Oh lord, the man’s a fraud, he’s a flim flam man.” Nyro’s lyrics are in the post-post script. (Listen at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bb9BhV8KCuk)
While Bernie Madoff’s grift was enormous, it pales in comparison to Donald J. Trump’s. He gained the confidence of numerous groups: white working-class voters, especially non-college-educated white men; Evangelical Christians and Christian Nationalists; rural voters, including farmers; older Americans; right-leaning Latinos; law-and-order conservatives; election skeptics; anti-establishment Republicans; CEOs and wealthy elites seeking tax breaks; small business owners; populist entrepreneurs; alternative media followers; and disaffected independents and former Democrats. From this stew, the MAGA cult was born—a political movement driven more by belief than by facts.
Trump’s lies and grandiose promises inspired confidence in his ability to fix America: to lower prices on day one, deport millions of “criminal” aliens, stop crime, bring back jobs, close the border, crush the “woke” agenda, seek retribution against political enemies, impose sweeping tariffs, pardon January 6 defendants, and end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours.”
He promised to make America great again—but few realized his vision of greatness would come by tearing down much of what the country had built since the 1950s. On April 3, 2025, “The Economist” published a feature titled, “How America could end up making China great again: A big beautiful opportunity.” The irony is bitter.
While the MAGA base clings to confidence in Trump, the rest of America—and much of the world—has lost it. And we don’t need financial indices to tell us that. But they all do.
On April 14, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 40,524.79—down 9.88% from 44,966.63 on February 6. But unlike usual downturns, this time, money didn’t flee to U.S. bonds. Instead, investors withdrew $15.64 billion from bond funds in the week ending April 9. (Source: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-04-11/us-bond-funds-hit-by-heavy-outflows-as-recession-inflation-fears-mount?) Bond yields rose. The once-reliable safe haven is now in question—an opening that China, seeking de-dollarization, gladly welcomes.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped from 109.35 on January 20 to 99.74 on April 15—the steepest fall since 2002. (Source:https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/DXY/?) Inflation, while easing to 2.4% in March (Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi), is expected to rise again, possibly reaching 5% under Trump’s tariff policies, according to Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller. (Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-waller-warns-high-tariffs-could-push-inflation-near-5-while-economy-slows-to-a-crawl-180032161.html) Economic forecasts have adjusted sharply: GDP is now projected to grow just 0.8% in 2025, (Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/04/14/economy-weak-growth-recession-2025/83048077007/) down from 2.2% in January and 2.8% in 2024. The chance of a recession? Nearly 50%. (Source: Ibid)
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned of a recession that could cost 2 million jobs. (Source: https://nypost.com/2025/04/08/business/larry-summers-predicts-recession-2m-unemployed-due-to-tariffs/) The Volatility Index (VIX) (aka “fear gauge”) has hovered dangerously high—between 30 and 60—since April 4, signaling extreme uncertainty. (Source: https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/)
But consumers are also wary. In March 2025, the Conference Board’s “Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.”
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) Consumer sentiment fell 10.9% in March 2025, the fourth monthly decline, totaling more than a 30% decline. All of its other measurements were also negative, including the consumer expectation of unemployment, which has doubled since November 2024 and has been the worst since 2009 during the GreatRecession.
Investors aren’t the only ones uneasy. Consumer confidence has cratered. The Conference Board’s Expectations Index fell to 65.2 in March, the lowest in 12 years. Levels below 80 usually signal a recession. (Source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Mar-2025) The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 10.9% in March—its fourth straight monthly decline and more than 30% in total. Consumers now expect rising unemployment at a rate not seen since the Great Recession. (Source:https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/).
And then, the polls. In six of seven recent surveys, Trump’s disapproval exceeds his approval. A CBS News/YouGov poll taken after “Liberation Day” (April 2) found that 56% disapprove of his handling of the economy, 60% disapprove of his handling of inflation, and 53% disapprove of his overall performance. (Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-trump-tariffs-13-04-2025/)
Trump, like the great confidence men of history, built his rise on a foundation of trust, illusion, and deceit. But confidence, once lost, is not easily restored. In the stock market, in consumer sentiment, in global trust, and even among some former supporters, the cracks are now visible. If this were Britain, a vote of no confidence would have ended his leadership already—just as it did for Prime Minister Liz Truss after 44 chaotic days in October 2022.
In America, the system moves more slowly. But the verdict is already emerging: the Confidence Man no longer inspires confidence. And in a nation where trust underpins everything from markets to democracy itself, that loss may be his most lasting legacy.
Day 86: days left to January 20, 2029: 1,375 days
PS: Famous confidence men
George C. Parker (1860–1936): He sold famous landmarks, especially the Brooklyn Bridge, multiple times. He also sold Madison Square Garden, the Statue of Liberty, and Grant’s Tomb.
Soapy Smith (1860–1898): He was famous for rigging lotteries and swindling people in Denver and Skagway, Alaska. This included selling soap with “prize money” supposedly hidden inside.
Joseph “Yellow Kid” Weil (1875–1976): He created many scams over his lifetime, supposedly swindling over $8 million.
Charles Ponzi (1882–1949): Created the original “Ponzi scheme”—promising high returns via international reply coupons. He defrauded investors out of an estimated $15 million (over $200 million in today’s money). His name became synonymous with financial scams based on robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Victor Lustig (1890–1947): “Sold” the Eiffel Tower—twice. Swindled Al Capone and ran various counterfeit money schemes. Died in Alcatraz in 1947 after being convicted for counterfeiting.
Bernie Madoff (1938–2021): He orchestrated the largest Ponzi scheme in U.S. history reaching $65 billion from thousands ofinvestors.
Frank Abagnale Jr. (1948– ): He forged checks worth over $2.5 million in 26 countries before age 21. He later impersonated a Pan Am pilot, doctor, lawyer, and more. After being caught by the FBI, he worked with them to prevent fraud.
Christian Karl Gerhartsreiter (1961– ): Marrying a wealthy woman, he pretended to be Clark Rockefeller, a member of the Rockefeller family, for years.
PPS: “Flim Flam Man” by Laura Nyro,1967
Hands off the man, the flim flam man.
His mind is up his sleeve and his talk is make believe.
Oh lord, the man's a fraud, he's flim flam man. He’s so cagey, he’s a flim flam man.
Hands off the man, flim flam man.
He's the one in the Trojan horse making out like he's Santa Claus.
Oh lord, the man's a fraud, he's a flim flam man. He's a fox, he's a flim flam man.
Everybody wants him, the people and the police and all the pretty ladies disarm.
Oh yeah, the beautiful gent, you know he has hardly a cent.
He pays his monthly rent with daily charm.
Hands off the man, the flim flam man.
His mind is up his sleeve and his talk is make believe.
Oh lord, the man's a fraud, he's flim flam man. He’s so cagey, he's an artist.
He's a fox, he's a flim flam man.
Don't believe him, he's a flim flam. Ole road runner, he's a flim flam.
