Just the Stats, Ma'am: Canvass Wrap up from AZ, GA, NC, PA, TX & VA

Easter weekend always seems to be the low point of the canvassing season.  People on Spring Break or other family obligations, weather (April showers) all factor in.  July 4th can see some Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website] volunteers taking a pass, too, but not to the same degree.  But it is the result of grassroots volunteers and organizers making collective decisions for those weekends, often with their own perception of the 2026 elections in their states in mind.

On the 19th, we had 898 volunteers come out to canvass.  I don’t remember a year that Spring Break was bookended around the religious holidays effecting participation to this degree but still.  Early organizing lays the groundwork for a successful Fall.

Still, the momentum continues.  Everything but the Northern Tier is being canvassed, earlier than last year.  Weather complying with volunteer eagerness (doesn’t always happen that way).  The special election in Florida also helped our earlier turnout (we started in February in FL-06, where weather was basically ignored as driving factor).  Election days come when they come.

But the Northern Tier matters more this cycle.  Michigan’s (as well as New Hampshire’s and Minnesota’s) open seat and Maine will be huge factors in the composition of the Senate in 2027.  

For those who missed my last diary, Alan Abramowitz is making a huge prediction about the Senate — and i think it will surprise people:

While the generic ballot model’s current prediction of a Democratic gain of more than a dozen seats in the House probably will not surprise most observers of American politics, the model’s forecast of a Democratic gain of five Senate seats—one more than Democrats would need to regain control of the Senate—undoubtedly will. The main reason for the expectation of a significant Democratic gain in the Senate is the fact that Republicans will be defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats at stake in the 2026 midterm election, and seat exposure is a strong predictor of seat swing in the model.

What matters most is that Hope Springs volunteers are actively engaged already, even if we hadn’t canvassed there yet.  Abramowitz’ model comes with the requisite warning:

The challenge for Democrats in 2026 is, while 22 Republican seats will be up for grabs compared with only 13 Democratic seats, only one of the states with a Republican Senator—Maine—voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, while two states with Democratic senators—Georgia and Michigan—voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Moreover, only one other state with a Republican senator—North Carolina—voted for Trump by less than 5 points. The next likeliest states for Democratic gains in 2026 would be Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Florida, all of which voted for Trump by margins of between 10 and 15 points.

We have targeted 14 Swing States to knock on doors and will have volunteers canvassing in all of them in May.  Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.  

Here’s the thing.  We aren’t knocking in urban areas, for the most part (where state and local Democratic party orgs are stronger), but the swingy areas that tend to be suburban (or even ex-urban) — and where weather is more of a factor.  But these are the areas that are deciding elections in the 21st century.  And, in addition to our Issues Survey, through our Constituent Service Request forms and Incident Reports, we are directly connecting them with their state and local government.  Not through our volunteers, but through their own words and actions.

We knocked on 65,381 doors in six states last Saturday.  At every door, we left a piece of literature promoting Democrats, which remains our biggest expense (by far).  

Volunteers talked to 5,364 voters last Saturday.  Of those, 3,442 voters answered questions on our Issues Survey, at least in part. 

We continue our special focus on voter registration in African-American communities, especially those historically affected by higher rates of lynchings in the last 150 years.  This special project in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas is driven largely by volunteers from Divine Nine chapters who share our commitment to “Until Justice is Real.”

But even though we had 3 chapters send volunteers last weekend, Easter definitely took its toll here.   But i mention this because, in Texas on Saturday, we registered more new voters than we re-registered voters at ne addresses — always an indication that our Divine Nine volunteers were working their magic!

Hope Springs volunteers registered 15 new voters and re-registered 21 voters at their current address to comply with federal law.  We differentiate new registrants from re-registrants because we engage in follow-up communications with the people that are newly registered to vote.

Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 1st.  We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.  The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization

Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical.  Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.

Arizona

In Arizona, 184 volunteers came out to knock on doors on Saturday.  We knocked on 13,560 doors and talked to 1,111 voters.  711 of those voters answered at least some of the questions on our Issues Survey.  We re-registered 4 voters.

Concern over Tariffs was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to.  Inflation was second and Border Access was third.  Rightly or wrongly, people are concerned they are under more scrutiny crossing the border right now and even though few people have told us they have done so lately apparently Americans don’t like being under more scrutiny.

3% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  53% disapproved.  12% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  44% disapproved.  There is no senate race next year in Arizona, but we are asking about job approval for the Republican Members of Congress in these 3 districts.  6% approved and 43% disapproved.  52% approved of the job Gov. Hobbs is doing while 5% disapproved.

69 Arizonians filled out Constituent Service Requests.

Georgia

168 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday.  We knocked on 12,045 doors and talked to 1,011 voters.  657 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.

We registered 3 new voters and re-registered 7 voters.  26 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Economic Uncertainty was the Top Issue in Georgia on Saturday.  Concern over Jobs was second.  Tariffs was third.

2% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  44% disapproved.  8% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  45% disapproved.  51% of voters we talked to said they approved of the job Jon Ossoff was doing in the Senate; 4% said they disapproved.  41% approved of the job Gov. Kemp is doing while 28% disapproved.

North Carolina

158 volunteers came out to knock on doors in North Carolina.  We knocked on 11,486 doors and talked to 930 voters.  595 of those voters answered questions from our Issues Survey.

We registered 4 new voters (primarily African-American) and re-registered 4 voters.  35 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.  1 voter filled out Incident Reports.

Inflation was the Number 1 Issue in North Carolina.  Housing-related Issues was second.  Concerns over Tariffs was third.

6% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  39% disapproved.  16% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  40% disapproved.  11% approved of the job Thom Tillis was doing in the Senate; 42% disapproved.  45% approved of the job Gov. Stein is doing while 9% disapproved.

Pennsylvania

84 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Pennsylvania.  We knocked on 6,190 doors and talked to 501 voters.  320 of those voters answered questions from our Issues Survey.

Concern over Tariffs was the Number 1 Issue in North Carolina.  Inflation was second.  Jobs was third.

3% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  43% disapproved.  14% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  41% disapproved.  21% approved of the job their incumbent Republican Congree Members were doing in the Senate; 44% disapproved.  52% approved of the job Gov. Shapiro is doing while 5% disapproved.

Texas

211 volunteers came out to knock on doors on Saturday in Texas.  We knocked on 15,339 doors and talked to 1,257 voters.  805 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.  

We registered 8 new voters (all African-American) and re-registered 5 voters.  141 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 5 voters filled out Incident Reports.

Inflation was the Top Issue in Texas last weekend.  Tariffs was second and Border Access was third.

6% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  41% disapproved.  14% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that 39% disapproved.  4% approved of the job John Cornyn was doing in the Senate; 52% disapproved.  6% approved of the job Gov. Abbott  is doing while 49% disapproved.

Virginia

93 volunteers came out to knock on doors on Saturday in southern Virginia in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.  We knocked on 6,761 doors and talked to 554 voters.  354 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.  

We re-registered 1 voter.  20 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Inflation was the Top Issue in Virginia last weekend.  Jobs was second (VA-02 is the home of Norfolk. which has a lot of federal employees).  Budget Cuts was third.

1% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  47% disapproved.  11% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that 46% disapproved.  51% approved of the job Mark Warner was doing in the Senate; 7% disapproved.  7% approved of the job Gov. Youngkin  is doing while 47% disapproved.

We canvass with an Issues Survey that is our jumping off point of conversations with voters.  We find this is an easy way to begin the canvass season.

218 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms.  We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along.  For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue.  This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.

2 voters filled out Incident Reports on Saturday.  A lot of these were reports about primary elections allegations.  Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November.  Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.  

All the data we collect will be entered into VAN, the Democratic database.  We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters.  At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand.  The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.  We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods.  

Hope Springs from Field has a hybrid approach.  We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing.  We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their own intensive field work.  Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns).  After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.

We continue to remind voters to verify their registration and also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections.  Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections.  

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022).  There is a lot of work to be done!  Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns.  Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary.  Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.

Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now.  It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!”  Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.

If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to turn out the vote here, protect Democratic voters, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection,

we would appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization

If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page.  Thank you for your support.  This work depends upon you!