As expected, U.S. economic growth stalled in the first quarter of 2025, almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs. Real GDP growth was -0,3% in the quarter. Consumer Prices increased by 3.6% in the first quarter, up from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Right wing and mainstream news may try to spin this as bad weather or something. But it’s not. It’s the Trump Effect, in plain sight.
Here’s the link to the press release: www.bea.gov/...
Here’s a link to the more detailed data (PDF): www.bea.gov/…
UPDATE: Private payroll growth weakens to a level consistent with rising unemployment. Unless the labor force shrinks, or government payrolls grew a lot (which I doubt), these numbers would signal a likely uptick in the unemployment rate in April or May.
CNBC: Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations
Companies slowed hiring sharply in April as they braced against potential impacts from President Donald Trump’s tariffs against U.S. trading partners, ADP reported Wednesday.
Private sector payrolls rose by just 62,000 for the month, the smallest gain since July 2024, amid heightened uncertainty over the degree of the tariffs and the impact they would have on hiring plans and broader economic conditions.
The total marked a deceleration from the downwardly revised gain of 147,000 in March and missed the Dow Jones consensus estimate for an increase of 120,000.
