Just the Stats, Man: Weekly Canvass Wrap up from AZ, FL, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA, TX, VA & WI

I had originally planned to go down to Texas last Saturday to canvass with Hope Springs from Field PAC [dated website] volunteers — which i did — and then go to Nevada and Arizona, to meet with Hope Springs organizers and volunteers there.  Not exactly a quick run to the Southwest, but saving a little time this year by hitting all three on the trip.  But plans go awry and my wife had surgery this week.  Of course i returned to be there with her. 

In canvassing in southern (south of San Antonio) Texas, i expected to see lots of Trump signs and Texas pride.  Not sure why (except i know this area, and visit at least twice a year) because i see the data every week.  This was where Latinos were reviving the GOP and concerns over the border (which goes both ways — meaning the same person could be worried over increased immigration and how immigrants are treated by the state) take on an elevated meaning.  But i talked to Democrats and unaffiliated voters who expressed concern about due process and retaining the ideals of America.  There were voters concerns about corruption in government, both state and federal, car prices and the cost of goods at Walmart (one person mentioned Amazon).  There wasn’t a Trump sign to be found — although there were two Beto signs still up from his Senate run.

Florida actually surpassed Texas last weekend by turning out the most volunteers.  Volunteers there have been canvassing since February 8th (due to the special election in FL-6), while the rest of us have been knocking on doors this year since March 1st.  And Michigan and Wisconsin finally kicked off their canvasses.  Wisconsin kinda makes sense — we had volunteers there working with the coordinated campaign for their April election.  I had visited Wisconsin in late January to determine where i would be of most use in the upcoming elections.  Go to Florida, they said, “We got this!”  And they did.  Still, we had volunteers in Wisconsin reporting on signs of Musk canvasser sightings and even some who walked with Constituent Service Request forms and wanted to know what to do with them.

Self-organization seems to be something Hope Springs promotes (is that the right word?  maybe encourages is more appropriate).

This week, we’ll be distributing another volunteer survey because people have asked to “change their answers from the last one.”  In my conversations with volunteers in these (now) 14 states, the dread of a corrupt, greedy administration has evolved into a steely determination.  We’ve had volunteers come out and canvass on a Saturday and then attend a protest or demonstration in their local big town.  Some have tried to explain that they don’t feel the same excitement and then go on to explain how they are doing more to resist this time.

“You don’t have to explain yourself,” i keep reminding them.  We do what we can.

Every volunteer is different.  And they definitely have their own set of reasons for getting out there.

I mentioned previously we are sending out 37,415 emails each week to mobilize volunteers.  We’ve now at 48,446 emails a week to these 14 states.

Last Saturday, we had 4,363 volunteers come out to canvass, more than a thousand more than the prior week.  We knocked on 318,532 doors in twelve states last Saturday.  At every door, we left a piece of literature promoting Democrats, which remains our biggest expense (by far) — and why we continue to ask for your financial support.

Volunteers talked to 25,879 voters last Saturday.  Of those, 16,533 voters answered questions on our Issues Survey, at least in part.

Periodically, i like to compare how we are doing compared to prior years.  This isn’t an exact comparison, because the number of states has increased (we were knocking on doors in 8 states in 2023), and weather is always a factor (ie, Georgia and Maine last weekend).  But it is interesting and suggests we aren’t seeing the normal volunteer drop-off that i’ve seen in running up to the midterms as opposed to president years (which always has greater interest).

But it seems possible that our turnout will resemble 2024 more than 2023 — which is what i find interesting.  The press has been comparing the direct action events of this year to that of 2017 — but we aren’t seeing the kind of volunteer drop-off they are reporting.  Again, these aren’t exact comparisons because the number of “Swing States” has increased each year.  But even the casual observer can see which year is more alike with 2025.

We have targeted 14 Swing States to knock on doors and will have volunteers canvassing in all of them this month.  Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin.  Like i mentioned above, we are now knocking on doors in all 14.

Here’s the thing.  We aren’t knocking in urban areas, for the most part (where state and local Democratic party orgs are stronger), but the swingy areas that tend to be suburban (or even ex-urban) — and where weather is more of a factor.  But these are the areas that are deciding elections in the 21st century.  And, in addition to our Issues Survey, through our Constituent Service Request forms and Incident Reports, we are directly connecting them with their state and local government.  Not through our volunteers, but through their own words and actions.

Hope Springs volunteers registered 64 new voters and re-registered 176 voters at their current address to comply with federal law.  We differentiate new registrants from re-registrants because we engage in follow-up communications, as well as mentoring, with the people whom we newly register to vote.  The lack of Georgia, where we have a concerted Voter Registration project, explains the sideways number (82 new voters registered two Saturdays ago, only 64 last Saturday).

Like i’ve said before, i bet you can tell when more Divine Nine chapters have joined us to canvass in African-American neighborhoods (specifically) for our Voter Registration Project.

Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 1st.  We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.  The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization

Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical.  Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.

Arizona

In Arizona, 382 volunteers came out to knock on doors on Saturday.  We knocked on 28,153 doors and talked to 2,280 voters.  1,459 of those voters answered at least some of the questions on our Issues Survey.  We registered 4 new voters and re-registered 49 voters (many of these were voters who wanted to take advantage of Arizona’s Active Early Voting List).

Inflation was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to.  Tariffs was second and Jobs was third.

2% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  33% disapproved.  We are finding that more voters have no opinion now that Musk said he was leaving, and that’s indicated here.  9% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  45% disapproved.  There is no senate race next year in Arizona, but we are asking about job approval for the Republican Members of Congress in these 3 districts.  7% approved and 42% disapproved.  51% approved of the job Gov. Hobbs is doing while 5% disapproved.

194 Arizonians filled out Constituent Service Requests and 2 voters filed Incident Reports.  There are some Arizona volunteer who want to canvass for AZ-07’s special election (although the seat is considered a safe Democratic seat).

Florida

588 volunteers came out last Saturday in Florida (the highest volunteer turn out for the week) and knocked on 42,747 doors.  They talked to 3,526 voters in four counties (and Congressional Districts).  2,235 voters responded to questions.  We registered 3 new voters and re-registered 35 voters, all using the Florida Secretary of State website (to comply with Florida’s stringent laws).  

The Top Issue in Florida last Saturday was (High) Prices.  More than a few voters are commenting sarcastically about president felon’s promise to bring prices down on “Day One.”  Tariffs was the Number 2 issue.  Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was third.

On Saturday, 4% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts and 37% disapproved.  13% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing; 41% disapproved .  

Florida has a new Senator, since Marco Rubio jumped ship.  Her name is Ashley Moody.  2% of the voters we talked to approved of the job she was doing and 12% disapproved.  Not a lot of voters knew her name.  We also ask about how voters feel about the job the governor is doing.  On Saturday, 13% said they approved and 34% said they’d disapprove.  You may have noticed his numbers changing once we got out of FL-06.

205 voters filled out Constituent Service Requests.  4 voters filled out Incident Reports, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

Michigan

416 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday.  We knocked on 29,702 doors and talked to 2,378 voters.  1,544 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.  We registered 2 new voters and re-registered 7 voters.  

Jobs was the Top Issue in Michigan on Saturday.  Tariffs was second.  Prices was third, voters are concerned how they will effect their families and standard of living.

8% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  42% disapproved.  9% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  44% disapproved.  52% approved of the job Gov. Whitmer is doing while 4% disapproved.

108 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Minnesota

236 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday.  We knocked on 17,157 doors and talked to 1,389 voters.  885 of those voters answered at least some of our questions from our Issues Survey.

We registered 1 new voter and re-registered 7 voters.  79 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Tariffs was the Top Issue in Minnesota on Saturday.  Prices was second.  Jobs was third.

3% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  34% disapproved.  8% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  43% disapproved.  54% approved of the job Gov. Walz is doing while 6% disapproved.

New Hampshire

89 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday.  We knocked on 6,292 doors and talked to 503 voters.  322 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.

We re-registered 4 voters.  14 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Prices was the Top Issue in New Hampshire on Saturday.  Tariffs was second.

2% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  34% disapproved.  11% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  45% disapproved.  14% approved of the job Gov. Ayotte is doing while 34% disapproved.

Nevada

328 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Nevada on Saturday.  We knocked on 23,845 doors and volunteers talked to 1,979 voters.  1,266 of those voters answered questions on our Issues Survey.

We registered 5 new voters and re-registered 19 voters.

Jobs was the Number 1 Issue in Nevada on Saturday.  Tariffs were second and Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was third.

2% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  32% disapproved.  9% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  45% disapproved.  There is no senate race next year in Nevada, but we are asking about job approval for the Members of Congress in these districts.  49% approved and 6% disapproved.  You will see that these took a dramatic turn last week.  11% approved of the job Gov. Lombardo is doing while 31% disapproved.

49 voters filled out Constituent Service Requests.  2 voters filled out Incident Reports, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

North Carolina

347 volunteers came out to knock on doors in North Carolina.  We knocked on 25,573 doors and talked to 2,058 voters.  1,305 of those voters answered questions from our Issues Survey.

We registered 29 new voters (primarily African-American due to our Divine Nine volunteers) and re-registered 23 voters.  211 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.  3 voters filled out Incident Reports.

Tariffs was the Number 1 Issue in North Carolina.  Prices was second.  Jobs was third.

2% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  37% disapproved.  10% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  46% disapproved.  5% approved of the job Thom Tillis was doing in the Senate; 45% disapproved.  49% approved of the job Gov. Stein is doing while 7% disapproved.

Ohio

538 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Ohio last weekend.  We knocked on 40,188 doors and talked to 3,215 voters.  2,057 of those voters answered questions from our Issues Survey.

We registered 4 new voters and re-registered 24 voters.  152 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Jobs was the Number 1 Issue in Ohio.  Tariffs was second.  Prices was third.

4% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  31% disapproved.  12% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  38% disapproved.  4% approved of the job Jon Husted was doing in the Senate; 8% disapproved.  38% approved of the job Gov. DeWine is doing while 34% disapproved.

Pennsylvania

472 volunteers came out to knock on doors in the Philadelphia suburbs.  We knocked on 34,314 doors and talked to 2,813 voters.  1,792 of those voters answered questions from our Issues Survey.

Jobs was the Number 1 Issue in Pennsylvania.  Tariffs was second.  Prices was third.

2% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  33% disapproved.  9% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  46% disapproved.  There is no senate race next year in Pennsylvania, but we ask about job approval for the Members of Congress in these districts.  11% approved of the job the incumbent Member of Congress was doing; 41% disapproved.  49% approved of the job Gov. Shapiro is doing while 5% disapproved.

158 voters filled out Constituent Service Requests.  2 voters filled out Incident Reports, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

Texas

527 volunteers came out to knock on doors on Saturday in Texas.  We knocked on 38,312 doors and talked to 3,141 voters.  2,010 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.  

We registered 17 new voters (mostly African-American, due to Divine Nine volunteers) and re-registered 53 voters.

Prices was the Top Issue in Texas last weekend. Border Concerns was second (a plethora of complaints, mostly) and Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was third.

3% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  32% disapproved.  13% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that 41% disapproved.  4% approved of the job John Cornyn was doing in the Senate; 48% disapproved.  4% approved of the job Gov. Abbott  is doing while 49% disapproved.

201 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 5 voters filled out Incident Reports, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

Virginia

262 volunteers came out to knock on doors on Saturday in southern Virginia in the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts.  We knocked on 19,309 doors and talked to 1,564 voters.  1,001 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.  We registered 5 new voters and re-registered 16 voters.

Prices was the Top Issue in Virginia last weekend.  Jobs was second (VA-02 is the home of Norfolk. which has a lot of federal employees).  Budget Cuts was third.

1% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  48% disapproved.  5% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that 44% disapproved.  53% approved of the job John Warner was doing in the Senate; 6% disapproved.  5% approved of the job Gov. Youngkin is doing while 49% disapproved.

128 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 1 voter filled out an Incident Report, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

Wisconsin

178 volunteers came out to kick off our canvassing in Wisconsin last Saturday.  We knocked on 12,940 doors and talked to 1,035 voters.  657 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.

We re-registered 7 voters.  52 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

Tariffs was the Top Issue in Georgia on Saturday.  Jobs was second and Prices was third.

3% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  36% disapproved.  8% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  38% disapproved.  44% approved of the job Gov. Evers is doing while 20% disapproved.

We canvass with an Issues Survey that is our jumping off point of conversations with voters.  We find this is an easy way to begin the canvass season.

1,551 voters completed Constituent Service Request forms last Saturday.  We send the completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along.  For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue.  This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.

19 voters filled out Incident Reports on Saturday.  A lot of these were reports about primary elections allegations.  Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November.  Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.  

All the data we collect will be entered into VAN, the Democratic database.  We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters.  At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand.  The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.  We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods.  

Hope Springs from Field has a hybrid approach.  We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing.  We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their own intensive field work.  Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns).  After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.

We continue to remind voters to verify their registration and also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections.  Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections.  

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022).  There is a lot of work to be done!  Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns.  Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary.  Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.

Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now.  It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!”  Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.

If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to turn out the vote here, protect Democratic voters, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection,

we would appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization

If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page.  Thank you for your support.  This work depends upon you!