First, the reasons why there should be one:
- The technology isn't that hard. But...
- There is no viable business plan to produce rare earth metals. You want to invest in a production facility to extract, purify and sell rare earth metals in the US? You can expect a variable rate of return in 5-10 years, depending on whether the Chinese buy off Trump (or whoever is in charge at that time). You are better off buying condos and using AI to drive up rent.
- There is a critical need for such rare earth metals, with the Chinese being the only ones smart enough to have invested in that need. The rest of the global elite, including governments in the USA, India, EU, Australia etc. (all those who perceive the Chinese as being strategic threats) sitting on their collective arses.
It is quite a compelling case, isn't it ?
And now for the reasons why it won't happen:
- There is no political will to actually confront the Chinese with any steps that actually make sense (as opposed to political theater that will eventually fail).
- The Chinese elite have read up on their history, and have learnt some lessons from it. The Western Elite has, collectively, read up on a make belief fairytale history that teaches us that we are somehow uniquely and exceptionally endowed, and that this unique endowment means that we will always prevail. In other words, we believe that we don't actually have to take any concrete steps to prevail… we just will. Because...reasons !!
- We believe that capitalism always works. So if investors aren't flocking to a manufacturing facility for rare earth metals, then that must mean that there is no need for such rare earth metals. Investors cannot ever be wrong, you see. Never mind that investors also thought that Elizabeth Holmes was a good bet. Belief in capitalism (or in the free markets) is second only to our belief in our exceptionalism.
That is 4 bullet points to just simply say… “we are stupid”.
