In just five short months, millions of Virginians will head to the polls for an election that will decide a whole lot more than which party controls the governor’s mansion in 2026. Democratic state lawmakers need to retain control of the legislature in order to advance a trio of ballot measures protecting abortion rights, codifying same-sex marriage, and restoring voting rights to ex-felons.
Republicans have framed those three ballot measures and this year’s election as a do-or-die moment for the commonwealth. Turnout will be critical, as Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is barred by law from seeking a second term and his chosen successor, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, lacks his name recognition.
A united Virginia Republican Party could, Youngkin hopes, give Earle-Seares a decisive turnout advantage in a hotly competitive race. There’s just one problem: Virginia’s Republican leaders absolutely hate each other, and they don’t care who knows it. The party’s MAGA civil war has left Youngkin with a political migraine—and given Democrats a golden opportunity to flip a swing seat governorship.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin
The trouble began, as these things often do, with a MAGA-themed gay porn sex scandal. This one involved the Virginia GOP’s candidate for lieutenant governor, John Reid, the first openly gay man to earn the role. Internal Republican research linked the Trump-aligned Reid to multiple salacious gay porn sites. That’s the kind of thing that puts you in the doghouse with the Christian conservative Republicans who elected Youngkin and Earle-Sears.
Youngkin told Reid it was time to drop out. Reid not only refused, he released a series of videos denying the allegations and accusing Youngkin’s team of extortion. The governor’s failed effort to bully Reid out of the race enraged the state’s MAGA movement, who saw the move as a backdoor effort to push their champion off the ticket.
Eventually the measured Youngkin lost his cool. He dispatched his top strategist, Matt Moran, to threaten Reid with serious consequences if he stayed in the race. Then, when Reid went public with those threats in a sworn affidavit, Moran and Youngkin issued a forceful public denial. But to paraphrase former FBI Director James Comey, oh lordy, there were tapes. Just a few days after Reid published extensive audio recordings proving his claims, Moran announced his resignation from Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC.
The entire embarrassing incident poisoned what were already pretty nasty relations between Virginia’s MAGA and Christian conservative sects. It also put Earle-Sears in an impossible position, because her largely Christian voter base now expected her to do something about the gay man scandalizing the state party. Instead, Earle-Sears decided to anger everybody.
Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears
In a statement in which she quoted heavily from the Bible, Earle-Sears nevertheless failed to express any opinion on her controversial running mate. When pressed by reporters to offer her opinion on Reid’s behavior, Earle-Sears said only that “It’s his race” and “his decision alone” to stay in the race. The state’s Christian conservatives read Earle-Seats’ vagueness as weakness. To the party’s MAGA wing, it sounded like carefully worded treachery.
Virginia Republicans’ frustrations are written across every poll conducted since Reid’s scandal surfaced, with Democratic nominee Abigail Spangerger notching small but consistent gains while Earle-Sears’ popularity plateaus. In January, Spanberger led the race by only 2 points. By late May, her lead had widened to 9 points. What once looked like a nail-biter of a race increasingly looks like a rout.
Earle-Sears’ struggles are also derailing her biggest obsession: controlling other women’s reproductive rights. Earlier this year, Virginia’s Democratic legislature narrowly passed a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion rights in law, a process they will need to repeat next year before the measure goes to voters in November 2026.
Earle-Sears has repeatedly said she’s “morally opposed” to the amendment. Keeping her out of the governor’s office is the best way to ensure Virginian women preserve their freedom of choice.
But what does that have to do with Virginia Republicans’ bubbling civil war? A lot, actually. The party’s deep rifts led to a spate of costly primary challenges as MAGA Republicans clashed with Christian conservatives. Meanwhile, a well-organized state Democratic Party is fielding legislative candidates in all 100 of Virginia’s House districts, forcing Republicans to spend even more on races that once went uncontested.
Hating takes a lot of time and energy, and Virginia’s GOP is discovering it doesn’t really have time for much else—including stopping their own slide into total dysfunction and reality TV ghoulishness. Democrats like Spanberger don’t just look like the adults in the room, with the current state of Virginia’s Republican Party, they are the only adults in the room.
Virginia’s political turmoil is another powerful reminder that the MAGA movement is incapable of existing alongside any other competing ideology. Its authoritarian roots make any kind of political coexistence impossible, even among other sects of Republicanism. Even when it means breaking a once-competitive party in two.
Youngkin and Virginia’s Christian conservatives now find themselves losing an existential battle for their party’s future. It’s a battle we’ve seen play out dozens of times in state parties and in the consciences of individual lawmakers like Youngkin, who probably regrets his own devil’s bargain with the MAGA movement right about now.
The Virginia GOP’s total collapse positions Democrats to make historic gains across the state. More importantly, it may be the key to securing a wave of long overdue reforms that make Virginia more just and more fair for everyone. It isn’t often that political parties flame out as spectacularly as Virginia’s Republicans. It’s a gift Democrats shouldn’t take for granted.
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