A truly horrifying report from Iran International indicating that over 12,000 Iranians may have been slaughtered by the IRGC security forces over just the past five days during the ongoing communications blackout:
Over the past two days, Iran International’s editorial board has reviewed – through a rigorous, multi-stage process and in accordance with established professional standards – information received from a source close to the Supreme National Security Council; two sources in the presidential office; accounts from several sources within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the cities of Mashhad, Kermanshah, and Isfahan; testimonies from eyewitnesses and families of those killed; field reports; data linked to medical centers; and information provided by doctors and nurses in various cities.
Based on these reviews, we have concluded that:
In the largest killing in Iran’s contemporary history – carried out largely over two consecutive nights, Thursday and Friday, January 8 and 9 – at least 12,000 people were killed. [emphasis mine]
In terms of geographic scope, intensity of violence, and the number of deaths in a short time span, this killing is unprecedented in Iran’s history.
Based on information received, those killed were mainly shot by forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij.
This killing was fully organized, not the result of “sporadic” and “unplanned” clashes.
Information received from the Supreme National Security Council and the presidential office indicates that the killing was carried out on the direct order of Ali Khamenei, with the explicit knowledge and approval of the heads of all three branches of government, and with an order for live fire issued by the Supreme National Security Council.
The most remarkable thing about this organized massacre is that it has so far apparently failed to deter massive crowds of ordinary Iranians from continuing to turn out in overwhelming numbers in utter defiance of the Islamic regime. And despite the scale of these atrocities, Iranian analyst Mojtaba Dehghani, writing for the Independent, argues the case for why the Islamic Republic cannot survive, regardless of how much blood it may be willing to shed:
Over more than three decades of rule, Khamenei has faced repeated waves of unrest, protests, and social and political movements: the Mashhad riots of 1992, the Islamshahr and Shiraz protests that followed, the student movement of 1999, the Green Movement of 2009, the December 2017-2018 protests, the November 2019 uprising and finally the Mahsa movement of 2022.
Each time, the regime survived, at the cost of mass repression, killings and immense political and economic damage. That history may have led Khamenei and the small circle around him to believe that this latest wave of protests can also be crushed using the same old methods: violent suppression, attrition, cutting communications and dividing the opposition.
But what is unfolding today is fundamentally and strategically different.
The Islamic Republic is no longer facing just another wave of social unrest. It is facing the collapse of its capacity to govern. It has crossed the line from a crisis-ridden state to a bankrupt one – what political science calls a “failed state”: a government no longer able to provide basic services, enforce effective authority, or reproduce legitimacy and loyalty.
He argues that the key turning point was the 12-day war with Israel (and the US) that completely shattered its confidence in being able to withstand an external military confrontation, or to project its power through foreign proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah that were already crippled, or Assad’s Syria that had been overthrown six months earlier.
When UN snapback sanctions were triggered in October 2025 and the United States intensified its pressure on Iran’s oil-smuggling networks, the regime’s financial lifelines were cut. The rentier state, which had survived by distributing cash and privileges to its loyal networks, suddenly faced a crippling resource shortage. This was no longer just a budget problem. It became an inability to provide the basics: food, medicine, electricity, water, gas and fuel.
The regime found itself in a structural impasse. To prevent social explosion, it had to supply the population with the minimal living standards. But to survive politically, it also had to keep feeding the security forces, militias and patronage networks that form the backbone of its rule and any damage to their interests would accelerate its internal collapse. But the regime no longer has the money to sustain both. The result is the paralysis of the Islamic Republic’s traditional mode of governance.
From rentier state to bankrupt state
Even during the bloodiest moments of the November 2019 uprising and the Mahsa movement, the Islamic Republic still had a key advantage: financial and diplomatic room to manoeuvre. Under the Biden administration and during nuclear talks, the Islamic Republic was selling around 1.2 million barrels of oil a day. Despite sanctions, it had relatively easy access to hard currency. There was no looming direct war, no nationwide power, water and gas crisis, and most importantly, it was able to buy the relative loyalty of its security forces and patronage networks.
Today, none of that remains. The Islamic Republic in 2026 is a state with no money, no diplomatic horizon and no functioning regional network. All that is left is a tired, expensive, eroding suppression machine that lacks both legitimacy and sustainable funding.
…
Even if the regime manages to delay the outcome through bloodshed, the equation has not changed: the public wants regime change, the money is gone, and external power has collapsed.
And that brings us to the cracks that seem to be widening by the day among the three pillars of the Islamic Republic — the civilian government headed by President Pezeshkian, the military/security muscle of the utterly corrupt IRGC that also controls most of what’s left of Iran’s economy as it circles the drain, and the religious theocrats of the mullahs and ayatollahs presided over by the aging Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
A couple of YouTube videos from the PPR geopolitical channel today try to make the case that Pezeshkian is no longer fully on board with Khamenei’s bloody agenda and may be trying to cut a deal with the acknowledged leader of the opposition, Reza Pahlavi, in order to put an early end to the bloodshed while securing his own position in a post-Islamic Republic Iran.
Quite frankly, given how many people have already been killed, I don’t see how such an ‘arrangement’ could possibly work at this point, nor do I have any idea on whether PPR has any credible inside sources for this speculation, but the videos do provide some useful information about Pezeshkian and his Azeri roots in Tabriz:
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Things are starting to pick up speed, with increasingly ominous indicators that TACO Don may be moving closer to taking kinetic action in Iran. From the Iran International livestream over the past few hours:
Iran regime may be in its final days and weeks, says German chancellor
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Tuesday that Iran’s ruling system appears to be nearing its end, adding that reliance on violence shows a loss of legitimacy.
“I assume that we are now witnessing the final days and weeks of this regime,” Merz said during a trip to India. “When a regime can only maintain power through violence, then it is effectively at its end. The population is now rising up against this regime.”
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'Help is on its way': Trump urges Iran protesters to take over institutions
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he has cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials amid the brutal crackdown on protesters, telling Iranians "help is on its way."
"Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!! Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price," Trump said in a post on his Truth Social account.
"I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY. MIGA [Make Iran Great Again]!!!" he added.
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EU parliament chief backs tougher Iran sanctions, IRGC designation
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola condemned what she described as escalating repression in Iran, saying Europe would not look away and was pushing for tougher measures, including sanctions and the designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organisation.
“Appalling images keep emerging from Iran showcasing the continued brutality of a regime that is terrified of its own people,” Metsola said in a post on X, adding that European institutions had acted to bar Iranian diplomats and were seeking stronger sanctions against individuals involved in the crackdown on protesters.
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Russia warns against US strike threats on Iran
Russia on Tuesday condemned what it called “subversive external interference” in Iran’s internal affairs and said US threats of new military strikes against the country were “categorically unacceptable,” the foreign ministry said.
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Vance to chair NSC principals meeting on Iran - CBS News
A National Security Council principals committee meeting focused on Iran and chaired by Vice President JD Vance is scheduled for 4 p.m. on Tuesday, CBS News reported, adding that Iran strategy was discussed in multiple Trump administration meetings earlier in the day.
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2nd UPDATE: More from the Iran International liveststream:
Iranian top Sunni cleric condemns killing of protesters
Iran’s top Sunni cleric, Mowlavi Abdolhamid, on Tuesday condemned the violent killing of protesters in cities across the country, warning that those who gave such orders would be held accountable.
“The massacre of thousands of protesters in Tehran and other cities of our country over a few days was a horrific and unprecedented catastrophe. This bitter event has plunged the Iranian nation into grief and rage, and has deeply wounded the conscience of free people around the world,” he posted on X.
“Undoubtedly, those who ordered and carried out this crime will be held accountable in this world, and in the hereafter they will also deserve divine punishment,” Abdolhamid added.
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Exiled prince Pahlavi says casualties mounting in Iran, urges support
Exiled Iranian prince Reza Pahlavi said on Tuesday the death toll from unrest in Iran has surged in recent days and called on the international community, including the United States, to provide meaningful support to protesters facing what he described as deadly force from authorities.
“The sad news is that we have had more casualties in the last two days — four times the number of people who were dead as a result of the 9/11 terrorist attack. What we get so far is at least, plus 12,000. It might be more, but that’s the minimum number we know have been killed,” Pahlavi told Fox News with Brett Baier.
“We are talking about using military weapons, AK-47s, armored trucks, to shoot to kill unarmed protesters. Their bodies are being picked up by bulldozers, he added.
Asked if he supports any military action, the prince said this is about saving lives and not aggressive interference.
“When civilians are being murdered and massacred in a war waged against them by their own government, some additional help is needed. I’m not talking about aggression — I’m talking about helping a nation liberate itself,” Pahlavi said.
