Another Special Election with a Good Outcome

Over the past several months, we have repeatedly seen the results of special elections showing a shift towards the Democratic candidates. In quite a few of these elections, the shift from the district’s previous election was more than 10 pts, and in some cases more than 20 pts.  

Today there was a special election to fill the vacant seat in Connecticut’s House District 139.   There were also a few other elections today:  two in Virginia,  and one in Alabama.  I was especially interested in the final numbers for the Connecticut race because it is the only one of these four races where the last outcome (in 2024) had been fairly close:  the vote  in 2024 was   D + 9.4.    The other 3 elections  (in Virginia and Alabama) were complete blowouts last time,  and were so again tonight, so it is difficult to infer anything from today’s outcomes in those 3 races. 

Well, the result in Connecticut today was not close at all!   The result was  D + 36.    That is a shift of more than 26 points toward the Democrat.   You can view the results of all of today’s special elections  here.