Russians have launched 500% more attack UAVs on Ukraine in 2025 compared to 2024--and at the same time the Trump administration was slashing aid and screwing around with deliveries. The devastation caused to Ukraine was the result of coordinated activity by the Russians and USA.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 15 to 16.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 76 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, Italmas-type, and other drones — of which 50 were Shahed-type drones, including jet powered Shaheds — from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and an unspecified area of occupied Donetsk Oblast.[104] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 53 drones, that 19 drones struck nine locations, and that drone debris impacted one location.
Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal reported on January 16 that Russian forces have struck every power plant in Ukraine since February 2022 and have inflicted 612 total strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.[105
In the night attack from Jan 15-16, Russia launched 76 strike drones (about 50 Shaheds). As of 08:30, 53 drones were shot down or suppressed. 19 drones hit 9 locations, with debris falling at one site.
Ukrainian forces are countering recent Russian Shahed strike drone adaptations that allowed Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft, highlighting the short offense-defense technological cycle in the war. Ukrainian drone charity Wild Hornets posted footage on January 15 showing Ukrainian forces successfully using a Sting interceptor drone to down a Russian jet powered Shahed (Geran) drone equipped with an R-60 air-to-air missile.[25] Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on December 1 that Ukrainian forces downed for the first time a Russian Shahed drone equipped with an R-60 missile meant to destroy Ukrainian helicopters and tactical aircraft that hunt Shaheds, and Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) confirmed on December 15 that Russian forces modified their Shahed drones with the R-60 missiles.[26] Russian forces have continuously adapted their Shahed drones to maximize their damage potential, including a recent innovation of attaching man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) to Shaheds to target mobile components of the Ukrainian air defense umbrella.[27] Ukrainian and Russian forces have been engaged in an offense-defense technological race throughout the full-scale invasion, and Ukrainian forces have repeatedly innovated new air defense measures to combat modifications to Russia’s long-range strike campaign.[28] ISW continues to assess that Western support for Ukraine’s interceptor drone program is vital not only for Ukraine’s defense against Russian strikes against the frontline and the rear but also for the defense of Europe.[29]
Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on January 15 that Russian oil and gas revenues in 2025 dropped to a five-year low amid declining gas exports due to Western sanctions and falling crude oil prices.[14] The Russian Ministry of Finance stated on January 15 that Russia’s federal budget received a total of 8.48 trillion rubles (roughly $108 billion USD) in oil and gas taxes in 2025, which Bloomberg noted is a decrease of 24 percent compared to 2024.[15] Bloomberg noted that Russia’s federal budget received fewer rubles for each barrel produced and sold in 2025 due to the strengthened ruble. The strengthened ruble increased Russia’s purchasing power on the global market, making parallel imports cheaper amid Western sanctions, but had adverse effects on Russia’s export profits.[16] Russia’s oil and gas revenues accounted for roughly 30 percent of Russia’s total federal revenues in 2024 but fell 22 percent year on year in 2025.[17] Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov acknowledged in September 2025 that Russian authorities expect the share of Russia’s revenues from oil and gas sales to fall by roughly 30 percent in 2026.[18]
Russia has also gradually depleted its liquid reserves over the last four years of its war in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported that Russia has spent more than half of its sovereign wealth fund to bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending and has turned to expensive borrowing that will take years to pay back.[19] The sovereign wealth fund is a state-owned investment fund from which Russia pulls money to avoid incurring debt, but Russia has been steadily depleting the fund’s liquid reserve to fund its war, including by selling its gold reserves in late November 2025.[20] Putin has grossly mismanaged Russia’s economy, which is suffering due to unsustainably high spending on the Russian military and the Russian defense industrial base (DIB), significant labor shortages, and reductions in Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.[21] ISW continues to assess that increased Western sanctions on Russia — in tandem with continued Western military support to Ukraine — will likely further impact the Russian economy and Russia’s ability to fund a protracted war.[22]
Key Takeaways
- Russian milbloggers continue to loudly reject the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create.
- The Russian military command has displayed a clear pattern of publicly presenting false information about the battlefield as part of a wider cognitive warfare effort that aims to influence US decision-making about ongoing peace negotiations.
- Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia’s continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine.
- Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
- Ukrainian forces are countering recent Russian Shahed strike drone adaptations that allowed Russian forces to target Ukrainian aircraft, highlighting the short offense-defense technological cycle in the war.
- Media reports suggest that a car accident seriously injured Adam Kadyrov, the son of Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov and possible successor, but ISW cannot independently verify these reports.
- Ukraine’s European partners announced new aid to support the Ukrainian military and energy grid.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.
https://t.co/ns4ua1X35Y
**General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine**
*Operational information as of 22:00 on January 16, 2026, regarding the Russian invasion*
In total, there have been 153 combat engagements since the beginning of this day.
Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repel enemy attempts to advance deeper into our territory, inflicting fire damage on them.
Russian invaders carried out 55 air strikes, dropping 144 guided bombs. In addition, they used 4,730 kamikaze drones and carried out 2,738 shelling attacks on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
- - Two attacks by the invaders took place in the North-Slobozhansky and Kursk directions. The enemy carried out three air strikes, dropping three guided bombs, and carried out 118 shellings, including nine from multiple launch rocket systems.
- - Today, the enemy attacked 11 times in the South Slobozhanskyi direction in the areas of the settlements of Prylipka, Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Chugunivka, Ambarne, Dehtiarne, and in the direction of Krugle.
- - In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy launched an attack in the direction of Petropavlivka.
- - In the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled four assaults in the areas of Novovodyane, Kolodyaziv, and in the direction of Dibrova. Two combat engagements are ongoing.
- - In the Sloviansk direction, the enemy attacked twice in the area of Dronivka.
- - In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attacked the positions of our defenders once in the direction of Minkivka.
- - There were 18 combat clashes in the Kostyantynivka direction today. The enemy attempted to storm the positions of Ukrainian units near Kostyantynivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopil, Yablunivka, Rusyne Yar, and in the direction of Sofiivka. One combat clash remains unresolved.
- - In the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of the day, the enemy has attacked 43 times in the areas of the settlements of Shakhov, Nikanorivka, Rodynske, Myrnohrad, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetsk, and in the direction of Filiya. Fighting continues in some locations.
Today, according to preliminary data, 141 occupiers were neutralized in this direction, 87 of whom were killed. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed four vehicles, 33 unmanned aerial vehicles, a communications antenna, and an anti-tank missile system. They also hit four vehicles, an electronic warfare system, a UAV control point, two warehouses, and seven shelters for enemy personnel.
- - In the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled five attacks by the invaders in the areas of the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Oleksiivka, Stepove, and Krasnohirsk.
- - In the Huliaipole direction, there were 28 combat engagements in the areas of the settlements of Solodke, Huliaipole, Dorozhnyanka, Zeleny, and towards Varvarivka.
- - In the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attempted six times to break through our defenses in the areas of the settlements of Stepnogorsk, Primorske, and Shcherbaky.
- - No enemy offensive actions have been recorded in the Dnipro region at this time.
- - No significant changes in the situation have occurred in other areas.
Glory to the Ukrainian defenders!
Glory to Ukraine!
- The X post by
@RpsAgainstTrump
shares a screenshot of Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy
@UnderSecSecPD
's statement, which accuses Germany of importing "barbarian rapist hordes" under Merkel and blames "Jewish" NGOs for suppressing criticism, evoking antisemitic conspiracy theories.
- Posted on January 16, 2026, amid a second Trump term, the content highlights the official's defense of historical narratives around Hitler, positioning her remarks as unfit for a public diplomacy role focused on U.S. soft power.
- Thread replies amplify outrage, with users decrying the post's Nazi-like rhetoric and linking it to U.S. alliances with far-right European parties like Germany's AfD, underscoring concerns over normalized extremism in foreign policy.
Donald Trump isn't the first person to be given someone else's Nobel Prize medal. The last recipient of an unearned Nobel medal was none other than Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels, at the instigation of Norwegian author Knut Hamsun
