I recommend this episode of the Politics and More podcast where NYer writers Evan Osnos, Susan Glasser, and Jane Mayer discuss the current situation with conservative political scientist Robert Kagan.
Kagan predicted the possible rise of fascism in the United States during the run-up to the 2016 election when he saw the Republican Party fall under the spell of the con man in chief. Kagan is/was a neo-conservative historian and now ex-columnist for the WAPO. He has joined a host of disillusioned Republicans who came to realize that the Republican Party was actually an empty shell.
TL;dr: With what is going on today, he thinks we’ve already crossed over and that there is virtually no chance that there will be real elections in 2026, say nothing to 2028.
Even more worrisome, in my opinion, about his predictions about the US, is his analysis of a new world order where we return to a world of brewing fights between the three major super-powers and a host of new nuclear powers who see the need to arm themselves against the US and others.
AI-generated summary:
The episode argues that American democracy has entered a full-blown crisis, with the 2026 elections almost certainly to be canceled in some way.
Brief synopsis
Robert Kagan joins The Political Scene’s Washington Roundtable to explain why he believes the United States has moved past a warning phase into an ongoing authoritarian slide, driven by Donald Trump’s consolidation of power and the erosion of institutional and cultural guardrails. The conversation connects domestic democratic backsliding to collapsing international norms, asking whether the U.S. can still credibly uphold a rules-based order abroad while its own electoral system and separation of powers are under strain.
Main points from the discussion
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Kagan contends that the U.S. is now in a democratic emergency, not just at risk of one, updating his 2016 “This Is How Fascism Comes to America” argument for Trump’s second term.
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He argues there is “no chance” Trump will willingly accept defeat in the 2026 elections, framing the contest as existential for Trump’s hold on power and for whether elections remain a real check on the presidency.
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The hosts and Kagan describe how traditional guardrails (courts, Congress, the bureaucracy, elite norms) have weakened under sustained pressure, making it harder to constrain presidential abuses than in Trump’s first term.
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They explore how domestic polarization and institutional erosion undermine America’s credibility in defending democracy and international law abroad, contributing to a wider collapse of global norms.
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The episdode holds out some hope that the trajectory is not inevitable: that in the absence of any current power structure willing to stop it, the only remaining power is with the people.
