While elements of the 11th Airborne Division have been put on alert, this does not, on its own, predicate an invasion of Greenland. It’s easy to imagine what 1,500 US Airborne Soldiers would do to light forces protecting a town of 20,000. But such an operation would carry significant risks which there is no clear sign the US has prepared for. Yes, Trump is insane and could order anything, but that includes Nuclear Strikes just about anywhere. That doesn’t mean we need to go crazy worrying about that. If he orders something stupid we can’t prepare or worry about every single possible stupid thing.
Why am I not worried about an immediate invasion of Greenland (in the next week or so)?
An invasion of Greenland is not a 5 hour operation with no troops left on the ground and an opponent such as Venezuela without many options for retribution. In order to succeed, the troops need to get there, control the objective, and hold it for a prolonged period. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe and Canada would need to do absolutely nothing in response.
Let’s start with getting there. Assuming complete surprise we have American planes flying over Greenland either dropping parachuters or simply landing on the runway and disembarking. While the first plane might get in unscathed, US military planners need to account for the possibility that Danish Air Defense could shoot at incoming unannounced planes. These transports are not stealth. It doesn’t take much of a radar to spot them. So any plan involving a sudden appearance of planes over Greenland delivering troops risks a good percentage of them getting shot down. I can’t see the US military ever risking that.
Next, getting there involves a very long flight over or near Canada. Canada will not cooperate in this. Canada will see the planes as might any number of “Allied” soldiers in Alaska. They will ask questions. Denmark will know they are coming. Denmark can close Greenland air space and threaten to fire on any incoming planes.
This then requires a SEAD/DEAD operation by the US (destroying enemy air defense). If we drop bombs on Greenland, Canada could very well scramble fighters to down the transport planes. Debate the likelihood of the Canadian response all you want, the US military planners need to account for that. If the US conducts SEAD/DEAD for Greenland, then they probably need to conduct SEAD/DEAD in Canada. Anything less risks the transports. Now we’re at war with Denmark and Canada even before Article 5 kicks in.
Further, Canadian air defense going hot means a shutdown of air travel across the northern US. Neither side has many troops along the border and any such movements would be very obvious and impossible to hide. I doubt Canada has many SAM batteries over Niagara Falls but the airspace would be chaos and Canada would begin to mobilize its army immediately. Any resupply of any troops who make it onto the ground in Greenland would be under threat of attack via Canada and also Europe via Iceland.
Meanwhile, whether or not the assault on Greenland is successful, 80,000 US soldiers in Europe might find themselves immediately surrounded with no means of resupply. The airlift and refueling capabilities in England and Germany might find themselves seized rather quickly. And if the US attempts to fly planes out, they could be targeted by European air defense. It doesn’t even need to be the country “hosting”. Germany might let flights out but any number of other European states might decide to shoot down those flights. It only takes one and Denmark borders Germany.
Let’s assume the troops are there. How are they resupplied? Are we in a constant operation against Canadian Air Defense? Is the US Navy moving a carrier group to the Northern Atlantic. Venezuela didn’t have significant anti-ship missiles. Europe does. Are we gambling a carrier group has what it takes to shoot down every missile launched at it? It could only take one to get through for significant losses. And are we invading Canada then? Would our troops do that?
We haven’t even gotten to land warfare on Greenland itself. The Europeans outnumber the US 10:1 in arctic trained troops. The US would be operating aircraft off of Carrier groups, risking planes over Canada, or going a long way around. The Europeans would be operating out of the much closer Iceland and have planes and equipment built to handle the cold. There's no guarantee the US could hold Nuuk let alone conquer the rest of Greenland.
Now let's assume the Europeans chicken out of the first fight. They let the US soldiers take Nuuk. What do they do about the 80,000 troops stationed in Europe? They can’t let them operate freely. They would need to confine them to base. Otherwise they pose a threat to any country they are in. Do they let supplies in? Do they let soldiers leave but keep the equipment?
And then there are the economic consequences. Global financial meltdown. Trade with the US would be halted, treasury bonds sold, and any number of other consequences.
This is all to say there is no quick and dirty operation in the vein of Venezuela that gets Trump Greenland. Even moving carrier groups into the North Atlantic doesn’t solve much. I haven’t even gotten into how this operation could potentially trigger a US Civil War with various military units choosing different sides. It’s one thing to pick on Venezuela, it’s entirely different to attack NATO. Hell, the units in Europe might just join the Europeans.
So COULD Trump attempt this? Obviously he might try. But there is no way it happens quick and cleanly and we all settle back to “normal”. It would shatter the US which the military leadership, even the corrupt ones, would know this. They may not stop it. But such events are akin to Trump declaring a nationwide martial law without Greenland. It would change everything immediately and dramatically.
Should you worry about Trump? Yes. You should all at the very least have emergency supplies such as food and water to last you through extended civil unrest. You should be contemplating what to do in all the many dystopian futures we are all too near to. Will an invasion of Greenland happen? Not if the powers that be wish for “normalcy”. If they want to go dystopian, then what does it matter if it's Greenland or some other way? If we are doomed to dystopia then invading Greenland would probably help those of us fighting against Trump.
But you should still be spending more time getting ready to win the elections in 2026 and 2028 AND preparing responses to the various ways the other side will attack those elections. If you want to be alarmed, use the alarm to prepare yourself for a variety of emergencies coming down the road. But don’t feel helpless. If Trump attacks Greenland all hell will eventually break out here and you will get your chance to do your part. So prepare to win in November. And prepare for fraud, prepare for martial law, prepare for environmental emergencies in which FEMA never shows up, and just prepare. Many of the preparations are multi purpose.
