By now you’ve probably seen more than a few news stories warning of another potential big winter storm, this one mainly threatening the East Coast, - there will be low temperatures as well.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park
MD200 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 00Z Fri Jan 30 2026 - 00Z Sun Feb 01 2026...
Major winter storm set to begin in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Friday...…
Precipitation continues in the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West...…
Frigid temperatures are set to continue throughout much of the eastern United States through the weekend…
A low pressure system forming in the Southern Plains is forecast to progress through the Gulf coast and into the Southeast by Friday. This is expected to produce a major winter storm for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, including the Carolinas, southern Virginia, and the Chesapeake Bay region. By Friday evening/Saturday morning, the low will move offshore into the Atlantic and traverse northeastward, where it is expected to continue bringing snow into the Mid-Atlantic. This system is also expected to bring strong flow onshore into the East Coast. Where the winds overlap with snowfall, blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility are expected, creating dangerous, near-blizzard conditions across northeast North Carolina and Southeast Virginia. Additionally, strong winds combined with high tides could produce locally significant coastal flooding and damaging waves...
How badly the storm will hit the East Coast depends on 1) how quickly it strengthens, and 2) where the storm track runs. Words like bombogenesis are being used, as well as that old standby, the Nor’easter. The storm system is forming up right now and will be moving up and out into the Atlantic over the next few days, so figuring out where it’s going and how fast it’s growing is tricky. Weather stations are few and far between out over the ocean. So, how to get the data needed so computers can predict what will happen?
Cue the Hurricane Hunters
The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flies WC-130s like the one shown above. Part of the 403rd Wing flying out of Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi, the Hurricane Hunters do more than track hurricanes. Right now most of their operational aircraft are away on the West Coast and Hawaii to monitor the atmospheric rivers that dump massive amounts of rain and snow this time of year. (Pineapple Express is a name for these particular streams of water, but such rivers can be found around the globe.)
What the 53rd Squadron does is fly their aircraft into these weather systems and use on-board instruments as well as dropsonde probes to gather basic information.
From the front of the cargo compartment, the aerial reconnaissance weather officer operates the computerized weather reconnaissance equipment and acts as flight director in the storm environment. The weather officer also evaluates other meteorological conditions such as turbulence, icing, visibility, cloud types and amounts and ocean surface winds. The ARWO uses the equipment to determine the storm's center and analyze atmospheric conditions such as pressure, temperature, dew point and wind speed.
A critical piece of weather equipment on board the WC-130J is the dropsonde system. The GPS Dropsonde Windfinding System is a cylindrically-shaped instrument about 16 inches long and 3.5 inches in diameter and weighs approximately 2.5 pounds. The dropsonde is equipped with a high frequency radio and other sensing devices and is released from the aircraft around every 400 miles over water. As the instrument descends to the sea surface, it measures and relays to the aircraft a vertical atmospheric profile of the temperature, humidity and barometric pressure and wind data. The dropsonde is slowed and stabilized by a small parachute. The dropsonde system operator receives, analyzes and encodes the data for transmission by satellite.
In May 2007, the WC-130J were equipped with the Stepped-Frequency Microwave Radiometer, which continuously measures the surface winds and rainfall rates below the aircraft.
The WC-130 flights typically last hours and gather a lot of data which gets relayed back via satellite links so that the weather computers have numbers to crunch ASAP. Missions have already been flown to the nascent weather system in the Gulf, and will continue as it moves and develops over the next few days.
The forecasts are still uncertain; much will turn on exactly where it goes.
As of Wednesday, forecast models agree a storm will form off the coast of the Carolinas early Saturday and then intensify rapidly enough to be classified as a bomb cyclone. They’re also zeroing in on at least some impact to parts of the East Coast.
But models diverge on the exact track of this storm through the weekend, which will determine who sees snow and strong winds. Even a change of just 100 or 200 miles in the storm’s eventual track could be the difference in an epic snowfall for major East Coast cities or just a cold, breezy weekend.
The takeaway on Wednesday: Parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia have the highest chance of significant and possibly heavy snow and strong winds no matter the eventual track of this storm. Confidence in the forecast dwindles north of there for the rest of the Eastern Seaboard, but southeast New England has the highest odds to see wind-driven snow.
So, while you are waiting to see what’s going to happen, just remember that all those excited meteorologists chattering about this latest weather event are depending on what those crews spending hours flying back and forth over the ocean find out for them.
Good luck to everyone, and happy landings!
