I’ve worked in changing red districts to blue for decades now, and i always use this analogy: think of Republican districts or states like a brick wall. “We are the sledgehammer!”
In the past few years, as Hope Springs from Field PAC became more grassroots-driven (leaving behind our legacy as an Obama-alum project), i’ve been using the winter months between our canvassing efforts to visit with volunteers in our target states. Ohio was the second in my series of stops on my January Northern tour. I made five stops in Ohio, visiting volunteers in OH-01, OH-09, and OH-11.
Roll Call said the “new House map that could help Republicans pick up two seats in the 2026 midterm elections, including one held by the longest-serving woman in congressional history,” even though everyone believes things could have been worse.
Ohio Republicans currently hold 10 of the state’s 15 House seats and could be favored in as many as 12 districts under the new lines — if you discount the gains Democrats made with voters last year.
Not every one does. But it would be hard to argue Ohio remains a swing state in the presidential cycle but you have to take advantage of the opportunities that present themselves. Maybe.
Three districts could be fringe Democratic targets in a big Democratic wave year: OH-7, a district that extends south from the Cleveland suburbs that is held by Rep. Max Miller (R); OH-10, a Dayton-based seat held by long-time Rep. Mike Turner (R); and OH-15, which extends west and south from downtown Columbus and is held by Rep. Mike Carey (R). The most significant change to this trio comes in OH-10, which moves from Trump +6 to Trump +8. This could be important if Turner, who has been an excellent electoral performer over the years, decides to retire. Under its outgoing form, the 10th would have backed Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) last year by a percentage point, but the one that replaces it, shown on Map 1, went against him by that same margin. Meanwhile, both OH-7 and OH-15 get slightly redder, as Trump’s margin in each expands less than a point. If any of these districts are truly in play next year, we’ll be in the midst of a huge Democratic wave year (we would probably move OH-10 to at least Likely Republican if it became open, though).
OH-09 “covers some significant Obama-to-Trump territory—Barack Obama would have carried the district by 13 points in 2012—so there is some “ancestral” Democratic DNA that could allow Kaptur to hold on for another term.” “But this is not a no-brainer Republican pickup—it’s still a battleground for 2026, and Kaptur has already said she will seek another term.”
But another priority in Ohio is the Senate, where former three-term Senator Sherrod Brown: “has longstanding populist bona fides earned in elective office over decades, service only briefly interrupted after losing re-election in 2024.”
Blue = March 7th kickoffs Dark Blue = Second Wave
Bl Green = Third Wave Green (Maine) = Summer St
We spent 28 Saturdays knocking on doors in Ohio last year, primarily in the Cleveland, Cincinnati and Toledo metropolitan areas. 15,391 Hope Springs volunteers came out to knock on 1,136,949 doors. We collected 193,251 responses to our Issues Survey last year. We already had another 133,121 responses in prior year’s canvassing. 71.3% of the 2025 responses were from voters who were not identified as Democrats. We don’t canvass Republican households.
Hope Springs from Field PAC starts knocking on doors March 7th this year. We will continue to target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with our systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but that Democrats are determined to deliver the best, most affordable government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Yes, we really need your help here! Our printer’s bills are — like most things — much higher than we had anticipated for the year. Adding extra states (like California) did not help the budget!
But we’ve already had phenomenal success in Ohio’s red counties — having won 17 out of the 18 red counties we worked in 2023’s Issue 1.
So we aren’t exactly afraid of the new lines. President felon’s numbers won’t be duplicated in 2026 and it sure feels a lot more like 2018 than 2024. Trump’s actions during his second term only make it better for us.
Every year we’ve been in Ohio we have expanded our reach and canvassing. Ohio volunteers expect the same again this year, although we have lost some of our organizers how have volunteered with us for these past 5 years. I get it, i’m getting older, too.
Ohio isn’t our weakest state in this regard — like Georgia, we have Super Volunteers ready to step into their shoes as organizers, but it is notable.
Hope Springs starts up our Issues Canvass again in March. Our volunteers knock on doors of Democratic and Independent voters and use a voter-driven approach to guide them through the Issues Survey, the CSR and Incident Reports. We record questions voters raise with a Q(uestion)-slip and record other relevant observations on an Observations form. Q-slips are sent to the relevant Democrat to respond to and Observations are entered into VAN. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026. There is a lot of work to be done!
We remain a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. But Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!”
No other Democratically-aligned org has been methodically trying to circumvent MAGA efforts to rig the House Midterm elections in 2026. And we need your help to continue. Our printer costs alone are way beyond our budgeting and we are asking for your help (if you are able).
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
