I’ve worked in changing red districts to blue for decades now, and i always use this analogy: think of Republican districts or states like a brick wall. “We are the sledgehammer!”
In the past few years, as Hope Springs from Field PAC became more grassroots-driven (leaving behind our legacy as an Obama-alum project), i’ve been using the winter months between our canvassing efforts to visit with volunteers in our target states. Texas was my last series of stops on my December Southern tour. Well, we didn’t make it to the Dallas area until the New Year. So December-January. 8 stops for meetings with our Texas volunteers — it’s a big state!
Rigged MAGA Map
A big state with big challenges for Democrats. One with unique issues (or history) that have to be overcome.
One of the questions i get a lot when i’m in Texas is, “Why don’t Democrats support/help/understand us?” Bet i heard that at least four times during this tour. Texas is literally under the gun. And some of our volunteers definitely feel abandoned by Democrats. But the reality, i keep reminding these volunteers, is that Texas (like Florida) is too big to abandon. With the 2030 Census fast approaching, every crack we make in that wall — every voter we talk to — makes a difference. Because the reality is that when Texas falls, goes blue to red, it’s going to shake the political landscape.
And a lot of the pieces of that puzzle have to fall into place.
One of those pieces (of the puzzle) — Texas Hispanic voters — will be the subject of my next post. Because one of the critical pieces to that puzzle was gifted to Democrats by president felon. We talked a lot about redistricting in my meetings with Hope Springs volunteers this trip.
Blue = March 7th kickoffs Dark Blue = Second Wave
Bl Green = Third Wave Green (Maine) = Summer St
Some of our volunteers were pissed, thinking they’ve been jerked around. But others have a steely determi-nation, as one volunteer said, “to shove it back down Abbott’s throat.”
Others feel like people have misread the 2024 election results, at least in Texas.
Trump improved Republicans’ standing with Latino voters in 2024, winning about 46%, according to 2024 exit polls, up from 32% in 2020. Texas’ new maps sought to build on Trump’s strong performance in the state, which he won by 14 points. Notably, Trump won every county in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley, which was long a Democratic stronghold.
Four of the five Democratic-held seats targeted by the state GOP are majority Latino under the new maps, with the 28th Congressional District, represented by longtime Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar, topping out at over 90% Latino.
But Trump’s standing among Latinos has fallen dramatically nationwide since the start of his second term, outpacing his drop in approval overall. [CNN]
The GOP is gambling that Texas continues a rightward shift in the 2026 midterms — especially among Hispanics.
Much of the analysis of the new map has assumed that Republicans are betting on the durability of their gains with Hispanic voters in 2024, when Donald Trump set a new high-water mark for Texas Republicans with 55% support, according to exit polls. Of the five districts gerrymandered to flip to GOP control, two were drawn with boundaries that add just enough Hispanic voters to form a majority of the eligible voting population, while two others in South Texas remain overwhelmingly Hispanic after adding more red territory.
Democrats have traditionally captured over 60% of the Latino vote in Texas, though their support has steadily decreased over the last two election cycles. Still, even as Trump’s popularity with Latino voters reached new heights, they still preferred Democratic congressional candidates.
Both the Senate and Congressional races offer opportunities for Democrats and progressives to build on in 2026.
We spent 37 Saturdays knocking on doors in Texas this year. 36,375 Hope Springs volunteers came out to knock on 2,659,446 doors. We collected 788,276 responses to our Issues Survey this year. 77.3% of these were voters who were not identified as Democrats. We don’t canvass Republican households. VAN now holds 872,196 responses to our Issues Surveys, almost a third in these brand new Rigged districts.
Hope Springs from Field PAC starts knocking on doors March 7th this year. We will continue to target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with our systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but that Democrats are determined to deliver the best, most affordable government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Yes, we really need your help here! Our printer’s bills are — like most things — much higher than we had anticipated for the year. Adding extra states (like California) did not help the budget!
“Even as the map is being challenged in court, some Latino Democrats are optimistic that Republicans overplayed their hand by banking on low Latino turnout.” Our volunteers in the Rio Grande Valley and around San Antonio think we have a secret card to play, though, one they think will drive turnout. We’ve collected 81,739 Constituent Service Requests in Texas and volunteers were still getting thanked by voters in their neighborhoods for doing that.
The Rio Grande Valley is especially interesting. It is home to a more conservative population intimately familiar with the border. The Catholic Churches and missions are almost the only social orgs that remain in the Valley with a humanitarian purpose with regard to migrants. Declarations by the Pope and Texas Bishops continue to criticize president felon’s treatment of Hispanics in these terms. It’s a population with deep ties to the church.
But, even in the Valley, it is all about the economy. The promised economic miracles from the felon (“From today, and from the day I take the oath of office, we will rapidly drive prices down and make America affordable again:” to cure inflation from “Day One;” etc) have fallen by the wayside for Tax Cuts for Billionaires, Foreign Misadventures and Political Performances. These voters are paying attention.
This both excites and frustrates the Texas volunteers i talked to. The primary election will occur before we began knocking on doors again — and our volunteers haven’t yet decided when we will resume in March. The Saturday after the election (our “First Wave” canvass) or to take a week off and start on the 14th.
But one thing i was asked at 6 of those 8 stops was about my preference on the Democratic Senate nomination. And i will repeat: it doesn’t matter who Texas Democrats chose as their nominee! The primary factor in the 2026 Senate race in Texas in on the Republican side. If Texas Republicans re-nominate Cornyn without too much damage done to the senator, it will be a lot harder to win than if they nominate Paxton (the front-runner, near as i can tell). But whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have the same chances in November — they both bring different pluses and minuses to the general election.
For either (Democratic candidate), we still have to bring a sledgehammer to the fight. Neither candidate can win in November otherwise.
Hope Springs starts up our Issues Canvass again in March. Our volunteers knock on doors of Democratic and Independent voters and use a voter-driven approach to guide them through the Issues Survey, the CSR and Incident Reports. We record questions voters raise with a Q(uestion)-slip and record other relevant observations on an Observations form. Q-slips are sent to the relevant Democrat to respond to and Observations are entered into VAN. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026. There is a lot of work to be done!
We remain a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. But Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!”
No other Democratically-aligned org has been methodically trying to circumvent MAGA efforts to rig the House Midterm elections in 2026. And we need your help to continue. Our printer costs alone are way beyond our budgeting and we are asking for your help (if you are able).
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
