Saturday, Hope Springs from Field PAC volunteers started knocking on doors in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Texas. Which means, we return to my canvass reports or updates. Many readers may remember that, on Fridays, i like to highlight the state where the most volunteers showed up the previous Saturday.
I doubt anyone will be surprised that, of those five, Texas was that state. Many of our volunteers had just come off of volunteering for campaigns in the primary — and Texas held their primaries on March 3rd.
It was a good night. In counties throughout Texas, Democratic voters made up a much larger percentage of the electorate than in 2024. And more voted in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary. “Democrats outvoted Republicans by 3 points, while turnout this month was higher than it’s been in any recent election.”
Turnout last week in Texas was the latest fuel for GOP worries that the Latino voters who helped power Trump’s 2024 victory are slipping away ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Heavily Hispanic areas have swung back toward Democrats in key off-year races as polls show the public souring on Trump’s handling of the economy and immigration, among other issues.
There are some very big takeaways here. “Among the 21 Texas counties that are at least 75 percent Hispanic, 20 cast more votes in the Democratic primary for Senate than in the Republican race.” Texas Republicans passed a RIGGED map, based on Trump’s 2024 numbers, and they were hoping to net five additional GOP seats in Congress. But Democrats could hold some of the seats if Republicans fall significantly short of Trump’s 2024 performance. We think that number could be four.
Initial view
At first glance, the consensus view was that things looked very good for the GOP in Texas.
But, then, reality started to catch up to that view. People started to look more carefully at these new lines — and the assumptions that went behind them.
Evolving view
Solid red became more pink. It still favored Republicans more than Democrats, but those of us actually talking to Hispanic voters were definitely hearing their disappointment with president felon. Why would we vote for a rubberstamp, they would ask?
Why, indeed.
Voters were telling us they were upset about the cost of living, the cost of health care and the aggressiveness of Trump’s immigration crackdown. Local builders have been sounding the alarm about their loss of labor — and not just in south Texas. This complaint was every where. But the executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, a Trump voter, started warning lawmakers that “South Texas will never be red again.”
Mike Madrid, a Never-Trumper from California, said, Republicans have “completely overplayed their hand.”
New Consensus map
The new consensus map looks better. Indeed, it highlights the five Congressional Districts where Hope Springs volunteers started knocking on doors again Saturday: TX-15, TX-23, TX-28, TX-34 & TX-35.
On Saturday, we had 957 volunteers come out to canvass in Texas. Volun-teers knocked on 52,347 doors. They talked to 4,669 voters and had in-depth conversations with 2,988 of them, respectively, guided by our Issues Questionnaire.
Hope Springs from Field PAC started knocking on doors Saturday. We continue to target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with our systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but that Democrats are determined to deliver the best, most affordable government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
Yes, we really need your help here! Our printer’s bills are — like most things — much higher than we had anticipated for the year. Adding extra states (like California) did not help the budget last year! (Yes, we are starting in a hole)
We’ve added two things to our questionnaire, both of them driven by president felon’s insistence on the Save Act. These are just in case that thing passes so we can protect our voters for November. So they can cast ballots that will be counted.
Other than that, the Issues Surveys haven’t really changed. Voters like to tell us what is important to them!
“Even as the map is being challenged in court, some Latino Democrats are optimistic that Republicans overplayed their hand by banking on low Latino turnout.” Hope Springs volunteers in the Rio Grande Valley and around San Antonio think we have a secret card to play, though, one they think will drive turnout. We’ve collected 81,739 Constituent Service Requests in Texas and volunteers were still getting thanked by voters in their neighborhoods for doing that.
The Rio Grande Valley is especially interesting. It is home to a more conservative population intimately familiar with the border. The Catholic Churches and missions are almost the only social orgs that remain in the Valley with a humanitarian purpose with regard to migrants. Declarations by the Pope and Texas Bishops continue to criticize president felon’s treatment of Hispanics in these terms. It’s a population with deep ties to the church.
But, even in the Valley, it is all about the economy. The promised economic miracles from the felon (“From today, and from the day I take the oath of office, we will rapidly drive prices down and make America affordable again:” to cure inflation from “Day One;” etc) have fallen by the wayside for Tax Cuts for Billionaires, Foreign Misadventures and Political Performances. These voters are paying attention.
On March 7th, Rising Costs was was the Number 1 issue for the voters we talked to. “A Sluggish Economy” (voter phrasing) was second and Difficulty in Finding Employees was third on Saturday.
5% of the voters we talked to had a favorable impression of the job Trump was doing, while 59% disapproved. For this canvass, we knocked on slightly more unaffiliated than Democratic doors.
2% of the voters who responded Approved of the job Sen. Cornyn was doing while 48% expressed Disapproval. 7% approved of what Gov. Abbott was doing, 41% disapproved.
Hope Springs volunteers registered 5 new voters on Saturday. We re-registered 8 voters on Saturday, who mainly updated their addresses. The Governor’s Office was the first to ask us about our Voter Registration Project in Texas — and specifically about the counties being targeted. But since then, Ken Paxton’s office has attempted to subpoena us (and was ostensibly the reason for my last meeting with Trump’s DoJ). We told both that we register anyone who isn’t already registered to vote. I definitely get the impression they don’t like it.
In Texas, 275 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms on Saturday. We send completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters and use a voter-driven approach to guide them through the Issues Survey, the CSR and Incident Report. We record questions voters raise with a Q(uestion)-slip and record other relevant observations on an Observations form. Q-slips are sent to the relevant Democrat to respond to and Observations are entered into VAN. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026. There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them and helping them to check their current voter registration status, if they cannot access it online themselves.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees (yet) but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change eventually.
But here’s the reality: Identifying Single Issue Voters and Constitutional Amendment supporters and doing GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote) costs us more money than our regular canvassing because this issue drives volunteer turnout higher and higher. Which means we have to buy more lit to distribute and other minor expenses (like water for volunteers).
Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!” Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
