After more than two decades of “illiberal democracy”—er, dictatorship—Hungary may be poised for a revolution at the ballot box at elections next month. Since 2010, Hungary has been dominated by Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party. Over the years, Orbán has progressively dismantled most institutional safeguards that protect the rule of law and civil society. For instance, the judiciary is independent in name only, and there is virtually no independent media left in the country. Moreover, Orbán is on record as thinking very little of checks and balances.
It’s what makes a recent poll by Medián, the most reputable independent pollster in Hungary, nothing short of seismic. It shows the opposition Tisza Party, led by former Fidesz member Péter Magyar, ahead of Fidesz by a crushing 55-35 margin among those who have already decided which way they’re voting. Tellingly, it shows that virtually all of Tisza’s supporters—97 percent—are certain to vote, compared to only 85 percent of Fidesz supporters. Considering that Fidesz has essentially run roughshod over Hungary for almost 16 years, it’s pretty telling that less than 90 percent of its voters actually intend to vote.
Another poll by 21 Research Centre shows a similar margin, with Tisza leading Fidesz 53-39 among voters who have already made up their minds, and 38-30 among all voters. By 21 Research’s estimate, this would give Tisza 115 seats in parliament, enough for a strong majority. Fidesz would potentially see its seat count cut almost in half, from 135 seats to 78. I did some digging, and at virtually every other election since Orbán and Fidesz began their current run, Fidesz has essentially had the election sewn up at this point. If this holds, Orbán is potentially headed for one of the worst defeats ever suffered by a governing party on the Continent.
There are a lot of reasons why this is nothing short of remarkable. For one, Magyar’s rise dates back only to 2024, when he walked out on Fidesz in the wake of a scandal surrounding the pardon of a convicted pedophile. It led to the resignation of Hungary’s president, Katalin Novak, and the minister who countersigned it, Judit Varga—Magyar’s ex-wife. Magyar subsequently scrapped plans to launch a new party of his own and instead took over the previously unknown Tisza party, leading it to seven seats in that year’s European Parliament election, four behind Fidesz. He hasn’t stopped since. Politically, Magyar would be a moderate Democrat or Rockefeller Republican here.
Magyar has risen even though the deck is stacked heavily in Fidesz’s favor. Besides the near-absence of independent media, the electoral system throws up another hurdle. Hungary uses a proportional representation system common in much of Europe. However, wasted votes for the winning party count toward that party’s total. In other proportional systems, the minority parties that manage to get more than five percent of the vote receive “compensatory seats” to ensure their seat count corresponds to their vote. Additionally, some of Fidesz’s strongholds are overrepresented, since they have fewer people than other districts.
This has led a number of opposition parties to pull out of the race in order to prevent a fractured opposition from handing Orbán and Fidesz another term. Most notably, the Socialist Party—which contains the bulk of the old Communists—pulled out in February, saying that uniting behind one strong opposition candidate was the only way to beat a system that amounted to “legalized cheating.”
And yet, even in the face of all of this, Magyar is poised to pull off a major victory for democracy in Europe and around the world if he can keep it up. In two more weeks, Hungary may be liberated.
