A spate of elections on Tuesday should have Republicans absolutely shaking in their boots.
In Wisconsin and Georgia, Democrats notched their biggest overperformances to date, telegraphing that the GOP is almost certainly going to lose their House majority and possibly even the Senate as well.
In Wisconsin, Democrats flipped a seat on the state Supreme Court, winning the race by an astounding 20-point margin to give liberals a 5-2 majority that will last until at least 2030. Democrats’ margin of victory was bigger than the 10- and 11-point wins Democrats garnered in two state Supreme Court races in 2025 and 2023, respectively—which at the time were seen as massive margins but now look quaint in comparison.
The results from Tuesday’s race showed the GOP coalition that boosted Donald Trump to victory in 2024 has now absolutely fallen apart.
Hispanic areas of Wisconsin shifted dramatically back to Democrats.
Voters also swung hard to Democrats in every geographic region of the state—urban, rural, and suburban alike. The Democratic winner, Chris Taylor, won large cities by 60 points, smaller cities and suburbs by 7 points, and even rural areas—usually Trump and the GOP’s strongest—by 5 points, according to data from The New York Times.
Meanwhile, historically Republican areas of the state didn't just move leftward, but flipped from red to blue. In fact, Waukesha—an ancestrally Republican suburb of Milwaukee that helps buoy the GOP to victory in this purple state—will now have a Democratic mayor.
Then in Georgia, Republicans also notched their least impressive special election victory to date in the Peach State’s 14th District—former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's old seat.
Trump-backed Republican Clay Fuller won Marjorie Taylor Greene’s former seat in Georgia by just 12 points.
The GOP victor won by just 12 points, even though Trump carried this district by 37 points in 2024. That's a 25-point Democratic overperformance—the largest House special election overperformance to date since Trump reentered office, according to data from the Downballot.
In fact, had Tennessee’s 7th District special election moved this far toward Democrats back in December, Democrats would have picked up that seat. And Republicans were freaking out then. Imagine their panic today?
Ultimately, the elections came as Trump is now at his lowest approval of his second term, an abysmal 17-points underwater as Americans are frustrated with high prices, including gasoline spikes caused by Trump's unpopular war in Iran.
His terrible approval rating showed up in Tuesday's results, with disaffected Republicans staying home and independents backing Democrats by wide margins. If a similar scenario plays out in November, Republicans will be in for brutal losses.
"The election results in WI and GA are a reminder that even as Trump’s GOP base is sticking with him on issues, that doesn’t mean they are going to show up and vote," Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter wrote in a post on X.
In fact, on Tuesday before election results came in, the Cook Political Report announced a spate of race rating changes almost uniformly toward Democrats.
"NEW @CookPolitical House ratings show Dems as substantial favorites for control, as Republicans would need to win 76% of the Toss Ups to keep their majority," Senior Editor Dave Wasserman wrote in a post on X.
And if Trump is as unpopular as he is now, that task will be virtually impossible.
Indeed, on Tuesday, data journalist G. Elliott Morris did a polling analysis finding that Trump's approval is underwater in 135 House seats that Republicans hold.
"New estimates I’ve produced show that Trump’s approval rating is below 50% among registered voters in 135 Republican-held congressional seats—104 in the House and 31 in the Senate," Morris wrote in a post on his substack. "And his approval is below 45% in jurisdictions represented by 44 Republican members of Congress—34 in the House and 10 in the Senate."
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He added, "this data suggests that House and Senate Republicans who stick with Trump are putting themselves in electoral jeopardy in November."
Of course, Republicans aren’t going to abandon Trump, because they are cowards who fear angering their Dear Leader, choosing instead to defend his horrible moves.
Republicans are slow walking into an extinction-level political event this November.
