The crap sandwich of a ceasefire deal President Donald Trump made with Iran may have saved Iranians from being wiped off the face of the planet by our genocidal maniacal leader. But it won't save the rest of us from higher prices at the pump—at least not anytime soon.
“It’s not a case of you just flick a switch and everything’s back up again,” Martin Houston, a former oil and gas executive, told The New York Times.
“Gas-lighting” by Drew Sheneman
Trump is desperate for oil prices to come down, as he and his party will be crushed in the midterms if prices remain high and inflation once again ticks up. It's why he caved and made this horrible ceasefire deal that leaves Iran better off than it was before he decided to drop bombs.
The flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz—which serves as a transport route for a quarter of the world's oil—has been stopped for more than five weeks, as Iran blockaded the channel and threatened to blow up any tankers that dared try to traverse, using that threat as leverage in the war. That means tens of millions of barrels of oil have been sitting on ships for more than a month, unable to reach their destinations.
That cessation of oil flow is leading to shortages across the globe, and driving up the price of oil and fuel for everyone.
Even if Iran allows oil tankers to begin sailing again—which is not even clear as the "ceasefire" Trump agreed to appears to already be falling apart, with Iran saying it still plans to hold up Hormuz traffic—it will take days, weeks, or even more than a month, for those ships to make it to their destinations. That means oil shortages will continue to plague the markets, leading to higher prices as demand outstrips supply.
Journalist Max Fisher had a great explainer about why it takes ships so long to transport oil. Fisher said that oil tankers are extremely large and heavy, and thus travel slowly—as slow as a human-powered bicycle. Imagine how long it would take to ride a bike from Saudi Arabia to Australia and, well, you get the picture.
What's more, because no ships could traverse the Strait of Hormuz for over a month, refineries had nowhere to store the oil they were pumping from the earth, forcing them to cease operations. And turning those flows back on takes time.
More than that, the war has caused damage to oil refineries and pipelines, which means that even once shipping traffic is back up and running, Gulf states will be unable to produce as much of the commodity as they did before this boondoggle of a war began. And anyone who knows the laws of supply and demand understands that the same demand for oil with less supply leads to ... rising prices.
Related | Trump's war spikes gas prices—and gets Iran a worse leader
Indeed, experts say they expect oil prices to be as much as 23% higher per barrel than they were before the war began, with The New York Times reporting that a barrel is expected to cost $80 by the end of the year—up from $65 before the war began.
So, don't expect your gas to fall below $3 a gallon, as it was in February, before this costly quagmire began.
And every time you fill up your tank, know your bill is higher directly because of Trump and the Republican lawmakers who enabled him to get us into this mess. Vote accordingly.
