Iran now holds a very significant portion of the world’s trade hostage – this includes both trade in petroleum and in other commodities. The hostages include both the US, and its allies in the Middle East and in Europe. The hostage takers in Iran again have the upper hand.
In a recent interview with Fareed Zakeria, Zakaria described how the US has always supported freedom of navigation. The earliest two wars for the US were with the French (the Quasi-war in 1798) and the Barbary Pirates War (beginning 1801) and were all about supporting freedom of navigation.
The effort to contain the Chinese partly focuses on a desire for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea as China wants to claim ownership of the sea and dominance over those permitted to use the sea for trade.
Shockingly, a critical element of the freedom of navigation seems to be coming to an end under the current administration.
In the 47 years the US has had tensions with Iran, the US never caused them to close the Strait of Hormuz. But through a strategic blunder, the US has “handed Iran a weapon” which it will no doubt use to claim ownership of the waterway and impose a large tax on ships passing through this bottleneck strait.
The Iranian parliament has passed a law requiring two million dollars per ship which Zarkaria quoting J. P. Morgan says comes to 90 billion dollars a year. This would be added to their 50 billion dollars in oil revenues annually.
Suddenly, a contained and economically battered state which was on the ropes has been transformed to likely become the second richest county in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia.
No doubt our allies in Europe and the Middle East are marveling at the stupidity of the current US leadership and the president’s weakening of the power and prestige of a host of democratic nations while vaulting the most dangerous pariah nation to a position of power, wealth, and prominence.
The change in the trade-related power equation is so radical that it can scarcely be believed. But our clueless leadership has accomplished this dramatic feat in a little over a year in office.
However, the US armed forces would seem to also need to take some responsibility for this threat to navigation
They watched as drone warfare became central in Ukraine apparently doing little to change their defensive strategies to deal with this new reality of war.
They also watched the USS Cole and the deadly attack on a Navy ship while refueling in the port of Aden by a small, fast boat packed with explosives. It was a warning of the dangers of asymmetrical naval warfare and Iranian boats would have similar capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz.
The US Navy seems to be quite capable on the open seas but much less effective in a confined space like sailing in the Strait of Hormuz. Carrier groups which contain many layers of protection were generally designed for the open seas.
War ships can probably protect themselves even in the strait but are not designed to do escort work and protect other commercial ships like oil tankers. The Navy was not tasked with and is not currently successful when doing commercial escort work, especially in a narrow strait.
So, the most expensive and sophisticated Navy and Air force in the world did not see this challenge coming and currently have almost no ability to do the escort work required to take away Iran’s power to tax, harass, and sink boats off its coastline.
The age of piracy is back in a modernized and updated form.
Perhaps it is time to change that given the world is being held hostage by a radical, hostile regime with little incentive to abide by maritime rules and laws. The US Navy needs to address a new set of requirements that fit with current threats to bring back freedom of navigation.
In the meantime, the US has egg all over its face and the all the world knows it. But it is only US consumers of needlessly overpriced gas that have the power to throw the current incompetent right wing leadership out of office.
