Okay... so like everyone else here I think I am not complacent and just coasting into the 2006 elections thinking the Dems cannot really lose... but you know what? I am... and I suspect some of you are too...
I think last night Bill Kristol, while taking his beating on the Colbert Report, let slip the plan the Necons have prepared for Rove and Bush this fall... and it is gonna be tough to beat!
Dharfur. That's right.
A region of the world where the leadership of this country, exclusively in the hands of Republicans, has stood by and allowed the horrific genocidal campaign to wind its blood drenched course.
Not that it has got much traction, but it has played out nicely for the typical attacks easily thrown out at Republicans (because they seem to ring pretty true): They don't care about poor people dying, black people dying, Africans dying... the logic for going into Iraq would necessitate action here but they won't take such action exposing their lies...
And if these weren't desperate times for Bush, Cheney & the Neocons (doesn't that sound benign, like a children's TV show Cheney and the Neocons), Rove, Republicans etc. we probably wouldn't be straying from such a course. But they are.
Most right thinking people. Certainly most Democrats, liberals and progressives, desperately want to see some sort of intervention to prevent what is going on in Sudan. It has had its profile recently raised even higher, with the recent Clooney/Obama show (which was awesomely effective at raising the awareness levels here - much kudos).
What good reasons does the Bush administration, other than the plain simple humanitarian emergency (which I am sure is foremost in his mind)? Well, let's think for a moment why else it may be a good idea.... hmm....
Well, firstly let's see who else has interests in the region, that may either clash or co-incide with ours: Oh, look, there's China.
Interest: Shut China out of another oil market
Now what is the simple 10 second version of the conflict? Oh yes, Muslims slaughtering and opressing Christians. Christian groups in the US have been among the more vocal sections of society in raising the Darfur issue, and for some time. And the religious farther-right, the same ones that are Israel's "With friends like these..." like Pat Robertson have been chipping in on Darfur.
Interest: Rally the Evangelical base
Now the truth is somewhat different to the caricature, as Darfur is mostly black and Muslim, but the latter is more likely to be the accepted spin in the mainstream media, let's face it. Still there is still a spin there.
Interest: In the face of attacks on Katrina that they will undoubtedly be subjected to, deservedly so, they can say "We do care about black people actually." No risk of losing the racist part of the vote here in the South though, where else can they go, plus that vote will remember priorities over Katrina.
Of course, on cue Bin Laden is doing his bit to be remarkably convenient into goading us into Sudan by making his interest plain. (And of course, let's not forget this is where Clinton tried to get him and was accused of wagging the dog by the rabid right.)
Interest: The campaign slogan "If Bin Laden says he doesn't want us to do it then it must be right for America" seems to be a pretty successful on election day round these parts.
And then there is Iraq. [fill in the blank yourself]
Interest: Distract people from Iraq, re-build support for the idea of regime change and intervention in the middle east, call Democrats cowards and traitors again...
It goes on. It will be worse if they are smart enough to launch this just long enough before the elections for Democrats to be caught making some contradictory or errant comments on the idea, so as to be beaten with them in campaign ads.
Will it be done this way? I don't know. Will it work? Who the heck knows...
Do we want to take the risk of not thinking it through in advance on the chance they won't do it or it won't work if they do? Am I nuts or is Rove (with assists from right field) really this smart?
Can the Democrats spin a win from this? Will it be a non-factor and fail to gain traction? Who will be the Democrat who misspeaks once and gets quoted out of context in perpetuity while the President rambles inanely with no comeback?
I so desperately want something done in Darfur, and have for so long... so I don't really care what for what reason people are spurred into action... but don't be taken aback or unprepared when the whirlwind arrives.
[edit: >>another reason of course, that i hadn't even thought of, is the old "Let's kick some ass and avenge Black Hawk Down" though this time they'll use overwhelming force rather than small force street fighting - and yes i do know the difference between Sudan & Somalia - but does everyone?]
