Having taken a brief detour into the West, we now return to the South-specifically, those Southern States on or West of the Mississippi River. This area offers golden opportunities for both sides, from the GOP in Texas to the Democrats in Louisiana. Expect some top-notch races in this area of the country-with a southern flair, of course.
Mississippi- Mississipi features two competitive races in 2004-both Democratic incumbents left in this state are under fire. In MS-2,
Bennie Thompson won unimpressively (53%)in 2002 against a weak candidate,
Clinton LaSueur. Thompson has a reputation for being out of touch with his constituents, and that is trouble. Three Republicans are duking it out to challenge Thompson:
LaSueur, Minister James Broadwater and CEO Stephanie Summers-O'Neal. Both O'Neal and LaSueur are African-American, which plays well against Thompson, also African-American.
In MS-4, Gene Taylor recently stood up to Bush on a couple of issues, so the GOP is trying to defeat him. Taylor, a Blue Dog Democrat, has consistently won easily in his GOP-leaning district.
He will likely face State Rep. Mike Lott (no relation to Trent), a strong candidate who should perform decently. Still, expect Taylor to hold onto his seat.
Thompson, on the other hand, may very well be in trouble. In my opinion, he's one of the top 10 vulnerable Democrats in Congress.
Arkansas- Arkansas will have two competitive House races in 2004, neither one of which isMike Ross (D-AR-4), who has secured his seat. Rather, Vic Snyder (D-AR-2) and John Boozman (R-AR-3)are the incumbents to watch. Snyder is facing a strong challenge from State Rep. Marvin Parks, and Boozman faces an equally strong challenge from State Rep. Jan Judy. Remember, the last time both got challengers in 2000 and 2001, they won with 55% each. Both Judy (http://www.janjudy.com) and Parks are not to be sneezed at as challengers, and both will likely give the incumbents a good race. While I'm betting on Snyder and Boozman to win reelection, one or both could be upsets.
Louisiana- God Bless the Bayou State! Its wonderful culture, cuisine...and Cajun Democrats who run the roost. With Senators John Breaux and Mary Landrieu (both of French descent) and Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco (also of French descent), it's good to be a Democrat right now in Louisiana. And with three competitive House races and a tossup Senate race, plus another potentially competitive House race, we've got our hands full. Let's take a look.
In LA-1, David Vitter is abandoning his House seat to run for the US Senate. This seat is reliably Republican, and has several strong GOP candidates running (more on them in a sec). The Democrats could potentially have a shot here, but only if Una Anderson runs. Una who? She's the Orleans Parish (essentially New Orleans) School Board Vice-President, and is a conservative Democrat (I'd say roughly as conservative as Rodney Alexander or John Breaux). Anderson has the name I.D., the financial resources and the campaigning skills to make the runoff-but only if she runs. Without her, the seat turns into a GOP fracas. Republicans running include Bobby Jindal (2003 nominee for Governor), State Senator Tom Schedler, State Reps. A.G. Crowe and Steve Scalise...and DAVID DUKE?! Yes, the ex-KKK leader who nearly became a US Senator in 1990 is currently in jail, but will be relased in the Spring. So, he naturally wants to run for this seat. This race will be fun to watch, if only for the entertainment value.
LA-3: With Billy Tauzin (R-former D) retiring (and likely resigning as well), Democrats have a big opportunity here. Tauzin was originally a Democrat, and no Republican has won this district for the first time as a GOPer since Reconstruction. The likely Republican candidate is Hunt Downer, the ex-State House speaker and a 2003 candidate for Governor. The Democrats will likely have a few candidates, with State Rep. Jack Smith running, and two others (State Senator Reggie Dupre and Charlie Melancon) considering a bid. This will be another runoff race for sure.
LA-5 and LA-7 are Democratic seats. Rodney Alexander will likely face ex-Congressman John "Diaper-head" Cooksey, but a poll for Alexander shows him leading Cooksey 52-36. Expect another tight race here, but one that will likely be resolved in November. In LA-7, a crowded field of Democrats will probably allow either Republican running (David Thibodeaux or Charles Boustany, Jr.) to enter a runoff. Still, it should be noted that this seat has generally been held by Democrats, with a brief interlude when Jimmy Hayes switched to the GOP. My favorite Democrat in this race is State Senator Willie Mount-she has a good chance at making the runoff.
If it wasn't for Tom Delay, we'd have a shot at winning back the House in 2004. But with DeLay's blantant obliteration of the Democrats in the Lone Star State, our chances are dim. Democrat Jim Turner has already decided to retire (with a statewide bid likely in 2006), and Ralph Hall switched to the GOP. So, there are several do-or-die races for Democratic Incumbents in Texas, and we must do what we can to help them out.
In TX-1, Max Sandlin (D) faces six GOP challengers, with 2002 Congressional nominee John Graves the narrow leader. Sandlin is a tough candidate, but his situation's pretty grim: it's a GOP-leaning district, with President Bush sweeping the state in November. I give Sandlin a 35-40% of reelection. In TX-2, Nick Lampson also faces six GOPers, the frontrunner being George Fastuca, former Enron executive. Lampson has the same problems that Sandlin has, so I also give him a 35-40% chance of survival.
Surprisingly, TX-4 (Hall's district) may be competitive. Two strong Democrats have entered the race: Recycling Company President Jim Nickerson and labor leader Jerry Ashford, Jr. With Hall facing two GOP primary opponents himself, I think either Democrat could be competitive. Still, I give Hall a 65% chance of reelection. TX-17 features Chet "Tough Cookie" Edwards (D) fighting for his political life against three Republicans. State Rep. Arlene Woehlgemuth and Dorothy Snyder have the best chance of reaching the general. Again, Edwards faces a GOP district in a GOP year in Texas. However, he's a brilliant campaigner, so I give him a 40-45% chance of surviving.
In TX-19 and TX-32, we have matchups of Democratic and GOP Incumbents. Both races will be close, and offer our best chances to even the score somewhat (by knocking off two GOP incumbents). In TX-19, Charlie Stenholm (D) faces Randy Neugebauer (R) in a tight race. A NRCC poll released last week shows Neugebauer up 49-38 against Stenholm. When adjusted for accuracy, it's a dead heat. Both are well-funded and are tough campaigners, but Stenholm is far more experienced at campaigning (this will Neugebauer's second race for Congress). It could make the difference. TX-32 has Martin Frost (The only Jewish Congressman from Texas) facing Pete Sessions (R) in another tight race. Frost is massacring Sessions in the fundraising race, and the district is a majority-minority one (with a 10% Jewish population). So, I consider this one the most likely for a Democratic incumbent to survive. I give Frost a 50/50 chance of survival, Stenholm between 45%-50%.
Oklahoma has a tight Senate race, the likely coronation of Dan Boren as the new Congressman from OK-2 (a safe Democratic district), and pretty much nothing else worth watching. Besides, we'll all be too busy looking at Texas to watch anything else in OK other than the Senate race.
Finally, we'll cover the Pacific coast races, of which there are several competitive ones.
