This is a new and improved version of a story
originally posted yesterday.
The Next Week:
If I were running John Kerry's campaign, I'd pour half of my available dollars into SC and try to take out Edwards while I've got the chance. As Lee Atwater said in '88 after Bush the Elder beat Dole in NH, "Shoot the wounded." Who knows if he's not going to do that. But Kerry has 'big mo', and has a real opportunity to swamp the field next week.
Not only will Kerry get tons of free media, but he should also have the biggest bank account of the field in a week.
Clark looks fatally wounded to me, no matter if he got a third or a fourth in NH. He's going to make a play for OK and, to some degree, SC in an effort to overtake Edwards as the Southern candidate. OK will be the test of whether or not Clark still has a pulse. I'd be surprised if he's still in the race on Feb 4. Clark was contructed in a laboratory to be the 'anti-Dean' candidate, and no longer seems to have a rationale.
Dean has nowhere to go this week. Burlington is low on funds, and seems to be debating how serious an effort to make in AZ and NM. It's hard to see them beating Kerry in those states, and contested losses will only drive the bunker deeper under the Earth. They seem to have decided that MI on Feb 7 is their firewall. MI should be a good state for Dean, but if they lose every single state 3 days earlier, it's hard to see them suddenly regaining their footing there.
Which brings us to Edwards. Johnny Sunshine is only candidate besides Kerry who has a shot at the nomination, and even that much is tenuous. He leaves NH badly diminished. His only chance to change the shape of the race is to very quickly pull the front-runner mantle off of Kerry. And to do that, he needs to demonstrate that NH happened because it's in Kerry's back yard.
Edwards needs to change the dynamic of the race this Tuesday, and he needs two things to do that.
- He has to not only win in his backyard of SC, but he has to also win on neutral territory - OK and/or MO.
- He needs to be competitive in the Feb 3 delegate count, to demonstrate he is a national candidate on Kerry's level.
- He needs to win the media determined battleground state, which seems very likely to be MO.
Kerry is threatening to swamp the entire country this week. And if Edwards can't get his finger in the dike, this entire race will probably be over in 7 days.
There are a couple of important endorsements coming in the next couple of days. And these are endorsement that come with troops like Christie Vilsack's, not symbolic endorsements like Gore or Harkin. In SC, Rep. Clyburn has the ability to deliver a significant chunk of the African-American vote. Edwards has close ties with the Clyburn machine, but I imagine there will be a great temptation to go with the front-runner.
Since MO is going to be such a pivotal state, any nod from Geppy is going to be crucial. Geppy has indicated he won't be making an official endorsement until after Feb 3, but there are subtle non-endorsements that can move troops. In Iowa, Tom Vilsack never officially endorsed, but he did put his machine behind Kerry. If Geppy does something similar, it could give Kerry an enormous leg up on the state.
One more complication: I think Clark is the walking dead, but if he zeroes in on Edwards and on the states Edwards most needs, and if Clark has enough of a pulse to draw some support and attention, it holds the potential of splitting the Southern anti-Kerry vote, and letting Kerry win the states he should have the most trouble with.
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Beyond Next Week:
Dean is clearly the undead at this point. I expect him to survive until Mar 2, and expect him to get his god given share of NY and CA delegates, which is about 25% in a 3 candidate field, or 37% of a 2 candidate field. But he's going to have trouble winning more than a state or two beyond Vermont.
Edwards is still alive, but just barely. One of three things is going to happen:
- Edwards turns things around this week by winning several states and dramatically exceeding expectations.
If that happens, he'll start bringing in the money to run a national campaign at a high level through Mar 10, and should have a very decent shot at taking the whole enchilada away from Kerry.
- Edwards loses every state on Feb 3, including SC, in the face of an overwhelming Kerry surge.
If that happens, Edwards would either immediately drop out of the race, or wait helplessly for two more Southern states on Feb 10.
- Edwards wins SC, and maybe OK, proving his continuing viability as a candidate, but doesn't show strength elsewhere.
If that happens, Edwards will join Dean as the undead. His campaign will continue, but without any real chance of winning the nomination. The campaign will begin to very closely resemble the '88 campaign with the following cast of characters:
- Kerry = Dukakis
- Edwards = Gore
- Dean = Jackson
Basically, we're down to one and a half candidates. A full John Kerry and a half John Edwards. This week will determine whether Edwards returns to full candidate status, or dwindles to nothing.