Here's a list of states I think that will be the best chance for a Democratic pick up in 2004. I'll also add which candidates I think have the best chance at picking it up.
Oh, and note: I tried to pick states that could be picked up by any candidate, not just one (for example, Edwards could take NC or SC, but it's a fairly reasonable to assume no other candidate can).
New Hampshire
The "liberal" vote (Gore+Nader) was over 50% in 2000. If the CW holds true, and Greens vote Dem for the election just to get rid of Bush, then this state should go to the Democrat.
Nevada
Nevadans are pretty pissed off over the Yucca Mountain incident. Of course, any state's citizens would be pissed if the president decided to make their backyard a nuclear waste dump. Liberal policies are popular with Las Vegas citizens, so if money and time was spent in a GOTV effort in LV, combined with an overall distate for the Yucca Mountain incident, Nevada could come back to the Democrats.
Arizona
The growing Latino population is becoming a forceful voting bloc, and if trends hold, it should vote for a Democrat. The election of Janet Napolitano should greatly help here. Another variable is how strong John McCain will support Bush's re-election campaign. Although the Senator is the W's campaign chair, I don't think that everything is "well and good" after what happened in 2000. Although McCain is a pretty moderate Republican, he's pretty loyal to his party (as he's refused to switch to the Dems numerous times). More interesting than McCain's support though will be his constituents- ie, are they angry at Bush for being nasty to their beloved Senator? Recent poll data suggests that Bush isn't all too popular in AZ right now (in fact, he's below the national average, though I cannot relocate the poll supporting this). AZ is extremely intriguing, and I can see Governor Dean's health care policies being extremely popular with lations, as well as Clark's military service being able to pick of some more moderate Republicans. A combination of the two gives us this state with no problem, IMHO. Either way, AZ should be a great pickup for our party in 2004.
Louisiana
Well, we have to be heartened by Landrieu's victory, in light of the money and support poured in by BushCo in the 2002 runoff. In addition, Blanco is running strong for the Governors runnoff. A strong GOTV effort in New Orleans should benefit a Democrat, and health care policy could easily garner some traction from lower class citizens who supported Bush in 2000 because of his "morality." In more progressive southern states (AZ, LA, AK, FL, TN and KY), I really think swing voters will be pragmatic and put their economic and health needs ahead of their desires for someone who shares their same belief system on religion. Anyway, I'm not all to sure on this pickup, but I put it on the list for the hell of it.
Ah, and now our eternal favorite, FLORIDA
Dean and Clark
Dean can run strong here for one main reason: Health care. In a state with the oldest citizens, his record on health care will cary him well here. You can't argue healthcare with a doctor and win. The older swing voters should carry him to a victory here, provided traditional democratic constituencies turn out, and Jews don't vote for Buchanan. Ha.
Clark, again, his military service can help him with some moderate voters, but it may scare away others. The two combined? Sorry Katherine, you can't do it this time. (Did you know she got elected to the House in 2002? Disgusting, huh?)
Missouri
Obviously, if Gephardt's on the ticket, he'll win his home state. I have no doubt about that. (But, I think Gephardt will have a harder time in other states, which will ultimately hurt our 2004 chances).
Missouri is a necessity. In the entire election history of Missouri, the candidate that won the state won the presidency. And while it's got to fall sometime, I'm not going to bet that it will buck this trend in 2004. Not only would the Gore states plus MO win the election, the fact remains if we can eek out a win in MO, we should be able to do it other places, too.
As far as Dean and Clark,
Clark should do well with the moderate swing, but I think Dean's "take no bullshit" attitude will help him here, as well as the entire Midwest.
West Virginia
Gore lost this state because of poor campaiging and pro-gun control laws. Dean takes it easily because of his pro-gun stances. Clark could do okay here, too.
Arkansas
Not only is he an AK native, his southern-ness should help him the best here than anywhere else. If Dean's the nominee, it'll depend on what the message of his campaign is, what the Republicans focus on, and how he rebuffs the attack. He could win this one, and he could easily lose it, too.
Ohio
In 2002, Gore lost by around 5% points, even though he didn't campaign there at all during the last month of the campaign. That suggests to me that any democrat has a good chance here. I think a charismatic candidate (Edwards, in particular) could play well here. Healthcare and the economy will be vital here, as Ohio has been hit prety hard by the economic downturn.
By Candidate
Dean
NH
WV
AZ
OH
FL
MO
NV
Clark
AZ
NV
AK
MO
OH
WV
FL
Edwards
NC
SC
TN
AK
OH
MO
Gephardt
MO
AZ
FL
OH
Kerry
NH
WV
Lieberman
Not going to bother. Sorry.
