The indefatigable Chris Bowers
keeps us informed on what's going on with Democratic and Republican efforts to recruit Senate candidates:
Arizona: It looks like Jim Pederson (D) is going to challenge Jon Kyl (R). Right now, Kyl and his huge warchest would be favored, but with an approval rating and re-elect numbers both under fifty, things could get interesting against self-financing Pederson.
Missouri: Clair McCaskill would probably be the best Democrat to take on Jim Talent (R), who is currently under fifty in his approval rating. McCaskill managed 48% of the vote in Missouri, out-performing Kerry-Edwards, and the state seems to have some serious buyers remorse in not choosing her instead of Matt Blunt (R). Given all of this, McCaskill could very well turn this into a top-tier race. Dailykos user Pronny51 claims that McCaskill is in, based on insider and family info.
Nebraska: Ben Nelson (D) has a very high approval rating and lots of money in the bank, which suddenly makes this seat look like one we could keep. However, Nelson will face either former Republican state chairman David Kramer or former Republican attorney general (and two-time Senate loser) Don Stenberg in the general. While Nelson looks good now, this is a fairly strong Republican field, and Nebraska is so ridiculously red that we need to keep our eyes on this one.
Ohio: Mike DeWine (R) is clearly vulnerable, and if Sherrod Brown (D) were to enter the race, it would immediately become top tier. A DSCC poll (grain of salt required ), showed DeWine only 6 points up on Brown, but at only 42%, which is very dangerous for incumbents. DeWine's re-elect numbers were only at 31% in that poll as well. With Grow Ohio now launched, Brown is working to help Democrats across the Buckeye state. We really need him to run here.
Washington: With Dino Rossi (R) out, it looks as though Republicans will field former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick. One of the reasons it looks as though McGavick will run is because he has been the former CEO of Safeco for all of two days. Almost immediately after he quit that job, he held a press conference where he planned to "discuss his motivation for exploring a run for the U.S. Senate in 2006."
And here in my home state of New York, Hillary Clinton is utterly swamping the mostly-unknown Jeanine Pirro (60% haven't heard of her). My guess is Pirro will instead run for state attorney general, leaving the hair's-breadth thin GOP bench to cough up a candidate.
