I know many of you think that Soft money will be able to be used in this election as long as it is donated to the 527 groups like moveon.org but it is extremely unlikely that this will be allowed. Here is an article from the washington post talking about how the FEC lawyers have concluded that in the wake of the Supreme Court's ruling on the BCRA that any donations in excess of the $5000 dollar individual limit to the 527 groups would need to be returned.
Some quotes:
Federal election lawyers have concluded tax-exempt political groups cannot spend donations from businesses, unions and people who write big checks to promote federal candidates, threatening a strategy Democrats hoped would keep them competitive with the GOP.
The Federal Election Commission is expected to consider the attorneys' recommendation next week.
...
n a draft commission response, FEC attorneys wrote that by their nature, political committees like Americans for a Better Country must use limited hard money for ads that promote, support, attack or oppose a federal candidate, regardless of when they are aired.
Groups also must use hard money for any get-out-the-vote ads, mailings or phone banks that promote, support, attack or oppose a federal candidate's election, the attorneys wrote.
There is some talk at the end about how the FEC could split the baby somewhat on this. The BCRA only applies to federal elections so if local candidates are also mentioned its possible that a combination of hard and soft money could be used. However this seems like an unlikely interpretation because its clear that the "major purpose" of these groups is to influence federal elections.
I know that a lot of people think that the rules couldn't possibly be changed before this election, but if the FEC rules that the soft money (express advocacy) loophole was elimitated by the supreme court (which is almost certainly the proper interpretation) then all it will take is an FEC ruling to ban the donations. It sounds as though the GOP already has the 4 votes on the FEC that are necessary to do this. (see my previous diaries if you want background)
