At first, having just read the text and not seen the ad itself with all its sickening imagery, I thought this was a sure loser just because it is not only so blatantly cartoonish in its language and exaggeration, but I'm firmly convinced that the Patriot Act is a losing issue for Bush (after all, some prominent conservative Republicans are among its biggest critics).
But after reading about and seeing it via sources like DKos, I think that anyone with half a brain has to concede can only be meant to appear as an Arab man is prominently featured above those words. And I am pretty firmly convinced that even still, they have no real way of defending it or ultimately risking electorally harm.
Because lets face it-- whether or not the actor used is in fact Arab-American or only appears for a few seconds is beside the point-- the implication is crystal clear. Advertising is inherently about playing on stereotypes and instant emotions, and if the folks who put this ad together weren't aware of what this could be construed as (or even actively planning on it), then they aren't exactly too advanced in their field-- and thus, having no clue what they were doing, would have no business being hired for a presidential campaign in the first place. I somehow doubt that. And just as and Dukakis' prison furlough program was a legitimate issue, so is Kerry's stance on anti-terrorist measures and civil liberties; yet just as the late Lee Atwater deliberately chose the image of a scary black man who had raped a white woman, his protege Karl Rove has decided to play on the racial component of our fear of Middle Eastern terrorists. The sad (and telling) difference is that Bush-Quayle '88 didn't get this desperate until the summer, while Rove has now defined this as the way he will play the game right out of the box.
But even if the media doesn't pick up on this in the next day or so, swing-voter Arab-Americans (who voted overwhelmingly for Bush in 2000 but are already trending away from him over civil liberties issues in and of themselves) will surely take notice and harbor the same kind of seething grudge that African-Americans still do to this day over Horton. Except that with the election this fall expected to be excruciatingly close unless the stumbling Bush can convince Americans that Kerry will leave them vulnerable to crazy Arabs within the next couple of months (the obvious purpose of these kinds of ads), they'll actually have a chance to take some immediate vengenance in swing states like Michigan and Florida.
Once again, just as with the Federal Marriage Amendment, Rove has taken a gamble that things will develop enough that the positive dividends of employing such divisiveness will outweigh any moderate-minded people offended. Once again, his calculating behavior is both reprehensible AND dead wrong.
