A recent
diary post debated the merits of trying to attract "Swing" voters and "Margin" voters into the Democratic camp. The debate/discussion ended when it was suggested that we were all talking through our hats. Where were the statistics and the accompanying analyses on the issues, especially of non-voters.
Some Googling has turned up these statistics from studies by Jack Doppelt and Ellen Shearer, Associate Professors at Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. The work was complied into a book and an online website http://www.yvoteonline.org/ . Of further interest was their analysis dividing the voters into five groupings. After presenting some of the statistics and the groups let's comment on one of those groups here. In future posts we can take up the other groups one at a time.
Here is a review of their work from the Faith in Democracy website Here. No author of this review was indentified.
- Age is the biggest difference between nonvoters and voters.
- In the 1996 elections, 73% of nonvoters were 18 to 44 years old.
- 39% were under age 30.
- 48% make less than $30,000 per year.
- 30% identified themselves as minorities.
But a study by Jack Doppelt and Ellen Shearer, Associate Professors at Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism goes much further in investigating what keeps more than half the eligible voters in the U.S. away from the polls on election day. In 1995 they became intrigued with this lack of voter participation and set out to hear from, and get to know, nonvoters. Their book, published in 1999, titled Nonvoters: America's
No-Shows, attempts to draw profiles of this poorly understood majority.
Some of their findings highlight facts that the generalizations obscure:
- 18% of nonvoters earned $50,000 a year or more.
- 44% had attended at least some college
- 25% were at least 45 years old.
And there are other revelations that go against widely-held assumptions:
- Nonvoters are not entirely disenchanted with the political process.
- 52% agreed with the statement: "The federal government often does a better job than people give it credit for."
- Plus, most nonvoters think the government should have a major policy role, at least in the realms of healthcare, housing, and education--83%.
And here are the group analysis by Doppelt and Shearer
Based on their survey and interviews, the authors were able to identify the following subsets of nonvoters.
"Doers," who make up 29% of nonvoters, tend to be more educated, financially secure, and younger. They are informed, active, listen to and read the news, and are likely to vote from time to time. They believe they have control in their lives and reason that if they voted, their vote would
count.
"Unpluggeds" are less educated, less involved with their communities, and constitute 27% of nonvoters. They're generally younger (46% are not yet 30) and believe that their opinions are ignored and also that issues in Washington don't effect them personally.
"Irritables" know what is going on and they don't like it. They don't believe their vote counts and see little difference between the two political parties. They hold anger toward institutions, especially Congress
and the news media, and toward the elected officials themselves. 18% of nonvoters fall in this category.
"Alienateds" are the oldest and poorest and least educated of all the clusters. People in this group make up 12% of nonvoters and they have lost faith in the system. They are the most hardcore and pessimistic of all the nonvoter groups.
"Don't knows" say they don't vote because they lack political knowledge. They generally have no intention of remedying the situation. They are, for the most part, poor, uneducated, older, and are the most female-dominated of all the clusters. 14% of nonvoters belong to this group.
Let's comment on the "Doers". In a way they seem most like us. What will it take for us to get them to vote against Bush and/or for a more progressive government in the fall? As a corollary, have any of you fallen into that category? Let's just stick to the Presidential, Senate and House votes. I'm sure when it comes to more local elections we have all missed at least one of those.
