This entry gives the short of it.
My thoughts below the jump.
I think it's a given now that DeLay WILL wage a campaign. And I think that despite the heavy GOP advantage in this district, the advantage right now rests with Lampson. Why?
(1) Lampson already knows how to beat an incumbent Gooper in a competitive seat, having in the 1990s knocked out Steve Stockman in what had been Jack Brooks' district. That was a different district, but Lampson has the experience and knows how to win.
(2) Lampson is a pro-gun, moderate Democrat who can be acceptable to enough Gooper voters to swallow him, at least for one term against a scandalized DeLay.
(3) DeLay already signaled his troubles by resigning in the first place, which he did specifically because he thought there was a good chance he could lose.
(4) DeLay has not campaigned at all for months thinking he was out, leaving Lampson to campaign and garner support UNOPPOSED.
I always have included this seat as a Dem pick-up in my personal view that we will take the House. This result makes it even more likely!
Go Dems!