Edwards NOT a Longshot

Many of the pundits claimed Edwards was a Long Shot.  They underestimated the dramatic effect that a likely Dean Drop out will have on this race.  

Face the facts, the ABK vote has won a majority of these primaries.  Dean still holds large bases in both New York and California, and a large number of former Deaniacs who are now on the Kerry Bandwagon.  Tonight's Victory Loss by Kerry proves this one isn't over.

I see Kerry coasting through Utah and Hawaii.

Edwards will make his stand where it counts, on March 2nd, and namely in Ohio, California, and New York.

Ohio-  This state should split, with a very close Edwards/Kerry tie.  Look for Kusinic to possibly pull an "Iowa" and throw some support to Edwards, pulling him out in front.

New York-  Arguably one of Dean's strongest states and one of Kerry's weakest.  This is where Edwards can pull even/ahead of Kerry.  He could win this state, and he could win it by 10 pts.

California-  The sizable Dean vote will blend with the ABK vote, and Edwards will get a huge number of delegates here.

The truest test will be March 8th, where Edwards can go 4 for 4 and pull ahead of Kerry.  Edwards will definitely win in Mississippi and Louisiana, and very likely win in Texas.  

Once again, the deciding state in all of this could come down to good ol' Florida.  If Edwards wins New York, contests California, and wins Ohio, Georgia, Maryland, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas, then he'll be very near or at least tied with Kerry.

The winner of the Florida Primary will be sailing to Boston.  If you can win there, well, you can win there again, when it counts.  Has Graham endorsed yet?