Over on the rightwing
electionprojection.com site, you can find a screed written with more enthusiasm than sense, entitled "21 Reasons Bush will win". Probably written in late 2003, it was intended to inspire courage in Republicans, and fear and trembling in Democrats.
How far we've come! Today, it just inspires giggles in us. Let's have a look in enemy territory, so we can have a better idea of just WHY Bush is going to be a sadder but wiser person in November...
(OK, OK, I won't predict the impossible. He'll just be sadder)
Here's the best Scott Elliott had to say about Bush's chances:
1. No more drunk driving lightning bolts.
Scott's theory is that Bush lost a lot of votes because of an underreported story about Bush and the old glug-glug, vroom-vroom, crash-crash that broke (sort of) just before the 2000 election. Well, there's no chance of that happening this time! Instead we have deep doo-doo in al Kaa-kaa, soldier massacres, DeLay reprimands, mental health rumors, Rehnquist getting hospitalized, falling consumer confidence, Pat Robertson, and Red Sox fever...
2. Bush defeated the incumbent party in a time of peace and prosperity. Supposedly, the incumbent party does well when we have peace and prosperity (Wow, did a Republican just admit that the Clinton years were a good time?). When does the incumbent party NOT do well? How about when their policies have fucked up everything from foreign relations to local schools?
3. Democratic GOTV Scott thinks 2000 was the best GOTV the Democrats could ever have done. Boy is HE in for a surprise!
4. National Security and the war on terror. True enough, that was the Republicans' ace in the hole, and they played it for all it was worth and then some. So much so, in fact, that when Kerry came off looking like a stronger leader in the debates, people began to wonder if Chimpy O'Douls was up to such hard work. Kerry had the big challenge on this, the GOP's strongest point, and he met it.
5. The perfect timing of the economic cycle. We heard that one through about June. The economy had been so bad that it was BOUND to get better and make the Bush league look good. Wrong, wrong, wrong! The numbers got so bad, they couldn't even continue to fake them.
6. The perfect timing of the national conventions. Scott was right about this one, we took a big hit in August. However, they did their worst, and it wasn't enough. We came back.
7. The collective weakness of the Democratic hopefuls. They expected a long, drawn out primary season full of petty bickering and the negative charisma of Lieberman and Geppy dragging down all the others. Didn't happen. The field this time last year may have had its problems, but Kerry-Edwards is a winning ticket. Get used to it.
8. Same Sex Marriage was supposed to dominate the news cycles and turn the whole country into Bigots for Bush. Didn't happen. For one thing, Kerry-Edwards didn't back gay marriage, which is disappointing to many of us, but did not alienate the heartland. For another thing, aside from those freepers who were going to vote for Bush anyhow, it's just not a top-ten issue for most heterosexual voters.
9. Republican GOTV was supposed to have been a juggernaut. Turned out to be the same old spend-spend-spend and get caught tampering with Democracy.
10. Florida was supposed to be more Republican, the main evidence for this being that Jebya got re-elected handily in 2002. But wait--we actually have a higher proportion of registred Democrats in Florida than we did four years ago. Bush's biggest constituencies--the seniors, the Jews and the Cubans--are drifting away from him. And on the subject of the Cuban vote, this time there is no Elian scandal polarizing the Cuban electorate against Kerry. It may be that Elian singlehandedly cost Gore the election.
11. Reapportionment The states Gore won (without Florida) added up to 267 EVs then, and 260 now. Which means we can't get by just winning Gore + NH or NV or WV. But Ohio or Florida will do.
12. The Bush Base is solid. Yep. It's also freaking out the middle. With a base like that, you can't build much above it. Take your 35% and throw your fit, Bush. We'll make do with the rest.
13. Proven Leadership Scott's words, not mine. Proven incompetence is more like it. And after the debates, people began to see the mask come off.
14. New Hampshire was supposedly too Republican to win. Look again; only the outlying polls even have it in play, or Maine for that matter.
15. Minnesota and Iowa were also supposed to be unwinnable for Kerry. Fortunately, we've turned that around too. This year, Iowa registered 46,000 new Democrats versus about 6,500 Republicans and between 15,000 and 20,000 Independents. And Minnesota did even better. I say both states will be called for Kerry pretty early.
16. Gropenfuhrer Here's where we really start having fun. California was supposed to be in play. Kerry would have to spend resources to win it. Holy Cow, Bush was gonna win California all because of Arnold! Today, Arnold's shrugging off the campaign for fear that some of Bush's loserness might rub off on him. What a long strange trip it's been.
17. Ohio. Then, Kerry's must-win, that he'd never get in a million years. Now, in Kerry's column, but only one of about six reasonably possible wins depend on it.
18. The Revolt of the Deaniacs OK, you can all pat yourselves, and Howard Dean, on the back, because Dean didn't run a spoiler campaign, and most of his backers pretty much stayed loyal to the party, just like the blogging Caesar was certain we wouldn't. In fact, their energy is helping to fuel the Kerry juggernaut, not derail it.
19. Misunderestimating. They think we don't learn from mistakes. Just because we laugh at Scrappy Doo and make fun of him, doesn't mean we think his campaign is incompetent. They tried to lower the expectations bar, and Kerry wouldn't let 'em.
20. Guliani. Why The Repubs thought Guliani would campaign tirelessly for the Republicans or that it would make a difference in NY is beyond me. Suffice it to say, they were wrong. Again.
21. The Supreme court. That's it. The final nail in the coffin. The people would be so upset that we filibustered Pickering and Owen that they's vote Democrats out in droves! "Trust me, the people want MORE SCALIAS!"
Bush is Toast.