New Newsweek national poll numbers. Tuffie mentioned them in yesterday's open thread, but surely they deserve at least a diary!
Poll was taken Thursday and Friday - so it incorporates the flag flap and at least the first-blush response to the SEIU/AFSCME thing.
Now - ta da! - the numbers:
Dean.......16
Clark......15
Gephardt....9
Lieberman..8
Kerry.........7
CMB.........7 (!)
Edwards.....?
Bush Approval 52 percent (disapproval not listed)
Trial Heats:
Bush/Clark...48/45
Bush/Dean....49/45
The poll article was carelessly written. It says that Dean runs best against Bush, though the numbers show that Clark runs (microscopically) better. Worse, the results leave out poor John Edwards entirely. Jeez, Newsweak knows how to hurt a guy!
The money numbers in this poll, though, are the Dem horse race. If this poll gets confirmation, are we looking at a Dean-Clark race? These numbers hint that the front tier that was just trailing Dean has broken up, with Clark pacing Dean or nearly so, while Gep and Lieberman slip down with Kerry into high single digits.
Sure, this is just one set of numbers, not enough to define a trend, only hint at the possibility of one. They're still music to Clarkista ears. There's been a lot of scatter in recent Clark numbers, right down to 8 points, but most show him in striking distance.
There are other reasons to think this could collapse into a Dean-Clark race. The SEIU/AFSCME thing is a big boost to Dean, obviously - but it specifically hurts Gephardt. The core of his strength all along has been the unions. If he loses them, what holds him up? So far as I can tell, he doesn't have the spontaneous grassroots support that both Dean and Clark can show. As for Lieberman, it's been pretty well accepted that he's only nominally in the top tier anyway, while Kerry's national numbers were already sliding into single digits.
One other thing to think about. Of all the top tier, Gep is the most likely to fall on his sword for the party. If party leaders make The Phone Call, say if he loses Iowa, he'll bow out. Kerry gets finished off the next week, and then it's Clark v Dean on Feb 3.
-- Rick Robinson
