Will you survive a tsunami?
I've been asking myself that for a couple days. I became more concerned when I read in yesterday's Seattle Times that Port Angeles (my home) is at high risk for a tsunami. Just now on CNN, Chris Goldfinger of the University of Oregon said that there's 100% certainty of a major earthquake and tsunami from the Cascadia Subduction Zone occurring along the West Coast. (He also said there have been 18 in the past 10,000 years -- about one every 500 years.)
But I know zilch. So I went digging. At the conclusion of the "Below the fold" section, I propose what I believe that each coastal town and city should do. Of utmost importance: Education and a siren system.
WHAT'S AT STAKE:
Study: Massive Pacific Quake to Come?
The Pacific Northwest is facing the possibility of a devastating magnitude 9 earthquake, said geophysicists studying earthquake-caused tsunamis that struck Japan in 1700.
(Larry O'Hanlon, Discovery News, Dec. 4, 2003 -- it's a fascinating story of historical discovery)
More below the fold ...
WHAT THE LEFT COAST IS DOING:
+ What we can learn from Cannon Beach, OR and from Ocean Shores, WA
As you read the following, you might keep in mind the magnitude 9.0 earthquake in 1700 that the University of Oregon's Chris Goldfinger discussed today on CNN.
That earthquake "buckled the ocean floor from Vancouver Island to Northern California -- the Cascade subduction zone -- swamped the West Coast of North America and washed away houses in Japan." (Years ago, West Coast had its own giant wave, The Seattle Times, Dec. 27, 2004)
Goldfinger guarantees we'll experience an earthquake like it again. Similar to this week's.
Yesterday's earthquake off Sumatra bears an eerie similarity to the one that shook our coastlines nearly 305 years ago. The two quakes are estimated to have been about the same magnitude, both occurred on north-south faults along the western edge of an ocean and both had "rupture lengths" -- the length of fault that slipped in the quake -- of about 600 miles.
(Years ago, West Coast had its own giant wave, The Seattle Times, Dec. 27, 2004)
Further, although we've all heard reports bragging about the superior monitoring system that the U.S. has, there's this disappointing note from today's Los Angeles Times:
... the West Coast depends upon just six National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami monitors in the Pacific to sense a tell-tale change in wave height.
On Monday, only three of those appeared to be transmitting data, Dengler said.
What are our communities doing? Who's succeeding?
WASHINGTON STATE
First among the vulnerable are the coastal communities that are smack on the Pacific Ocean:
Then there are communities on the Strait of Juan de Fuca and near Canada's Vancouver Island:
In the Puget Sound area, Whidbey Island, Port Angeles [my home], Port Townsend and Bellingham are at particular risk from a Pacific tsunami.
(Years ago, West Coast had its own giant wave, The Seattle Times, Dec. 27, 2004)
NOTE: Seattle is said not to be at risk for a tsunami.
It appears that the towns directly in the path of the Pacific Ocean are the best prepared. My home, Port Angeles, is not as well prepared.
... THE OCEAN SHORES (WA) SUCCESS:
Washington state boasts the first "TsunamiReady" city in the U.S.:
Report from Washington, "Radio on a Stick"
Ocean Shores, the first TsunamiReady community in the nation, is now home to a wind-powered tsunami warning device which broadcasts warnings over a loud speaker and flashes a blue light. The speakers, the blue light and a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather radio are fastened to a 40-foot pole near the Shilo Inn at Chance A La Mer beach.
[NOTE: Doesn't this following description of Ocean Shores sound a lot like the beach resorts devastated this week by the tsunami?]
According to George Crawford (Washington State's earthquake program manager), Ocean Shores was selected for the pilot program because of its long coast line, the proximity of hotels and the city center to the ocean, and the town's previous tsunami mitigation efforts. "The whole community is beach," he said. "That whole community is threatened. There's a lot of hotels and motels. Seconds matter there. They don't have any high ground so every second counts for them." (Aberdeen Daily World, June 29, 2003, reported by Kaitlin Manry)
NOAA donated the equipment, state and contract employees installed it, and the Ocean Shores Police Department conducted tests. Ocean Shores' "Radio on a Stick" could be the first of many such warning towers. (emphases mine)
Port Townsend (on the Strait of Juan de Fuca, not far from Pt. Angeles -- and famous as the location for the film, An Officer and a Gentleman) -- has been the beneficiary of a NOAA Weather Radio siren and light system. Ocean Shores and the Puyallup valley also received the systems to "to notify local residents and visitors of tsunami, volcano and other hazard warning messages." (NOAA Weather Radio, Summer 2004)
OREGON
Oregon seems to be doing a great job. Years ago, Oregon posted highway signs for tsunami routes, mapped all relevant areas, began school education programs, and installed sirens in several coastal communities.
Signs there indicate when a driver is entering or leaving a "tsunami hazard zone" -- most are along coast-hugging U.S. Highway 101 -- and mark evacuation routes out of towns to higher ground.
Oregon also mapped anticipated inundation areas, distributed the maps on the Internet and to local officials, and required public schools in tsunami "run-up" areas to practice evacuations once a year.
"In some ways," [Jay Wilson, earthquake and tsunami program coordinator for Oregon Emergency Management] said, "once you get all the mapping done and you get the signs in place, you're just maintaining infrastructure.
(Los Angeles Times, Dec. 28, 2004)
... THE CANNON BEACH (OR) SUCCESS:
First: Those of you who like to pore through highly detailed, informative government documents will love Tsunami Warning Systems and Procedures, Oregon Emergency Management and Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Special Papers, 2001 (PDF format).
Cannon Beach, Oregon [also a stunning, if expensive, vacation spot!] has purchased a Whelan electronic system that includes public address component. The sirens use a simple storage battery power supply, and the system is run with solar-powered batteries totally independent of the commercial system.
(
Tsunami Warning Systems and Procedures)
There are four units in Cannon Beach and two in Arch Cape to the south.
Cost: $33,300 per station +
$2,000 for central triggering equipment, $4,000 for site survey, and $5,000 per year for maintenance.
CALIFORNIA
Today's Los Angeles Times points out that most emergency planners in California are downplaying the threat of a tsunami and that few coastal Californians know that they must seek higher land.
California lags behind other Pacific Coast states in preparing for a tsunami, with maps of worst-case flooding finished for only half of the state's shoreline and Crescent City -- where a killer wave drowned 11 people 40 years ago -- the only town officially declared "tsunami ready" by the federal government.
In Oregon and Washington, blue-and-white tsunami evacuation route signs remind coastal dwellers of the danger of gigantic earthquake-driven waves.
In Hawaii, where tsunamis are the most deadly natural disaster, phone books include evacuation routes.
Neither precaution exists in California. ...
(Los Angeles Times, Dec. 28, 2004)
A MODEST PROPOSAL
I've decided on a modest proposal to be implemented by every town, city, and rural area in the possible path of a tsunami:
1) Invest in as many sirens as you can. They're cheap! Use Cannon Beach, OR as your model. Sirens can be used for more than one kind of disaster.
The best systems seem to be in Hawaii and in Alaska.
The Kenai Peninsula (AK) has 28 sirens. Kenai also has a telephone notification system with a pre-recorded message and an auto-dial system.
Many other systems are discussed, including aerial flares, explosive reports, billboards, mobile loudspeakers, ham radio, and aircraft.
Note that Hawaii has 327 sirens. In contrast, WA state currently has only 8 sirens. Sirens have limited range, therefore the more, the better.
And the report makes the significant recommendation that worldwide, we adopt the Denmark model:
The Portland Region Risk Management Planning Group and Oregon Local Emergency Management Council recommend "national adoption of a siren signal, developed in Denmark [see
Denmark Emergency Management Agency], that alerts the public to peacetime emergencies." ... This signal, different from a regular siren signal, tells everyone to turn on their TV or radio. The "distinct tone wavers, enabling people of different hearing abilities to hear it. There is also a distinct and different clear tone."
Tsunami Warning Systems and Procedures
- Post tsunami evacuation route signs at regular intervals. (Image of sign in Ocean Shores, WA.)
- Post emergency radio station numbers on road signs -- NOAA Weather Radio Frequencies
- Publicize the above information through flyers in utility bills and through the cooperation of local enwspapers, radio and TV stations, and merchants (who can provide flyers or put up posters).
Since -- again -- I am ignorant on this topic, I welcome suggestions and criticisms. I'll gladly add/delete suggestions in the list above.
ALSO of note: Tsunami Warning Systems and Procedures (PDF format) discusses a wide range of possibilities for communities, depending on each community's special needs, population type, geography, road system, and more.
P.S. As long as this diary is, I left out reams. I can't cover everything, so please add your knowledge and sources below.
