Quick and Dirty Analysis of Exit Poll Data

Here is some quick, back of the envelope analysis of the 4 p.m. exit poll data (not precise, but precise enough get a rough sense of the proportions):

(1) the population adjusted swing in the reported results towards Bush is approximately 3.17% over the exit polls.

(2) Based on the the exit polls Kerry would have won the election garnering 311 electoral votes.

(3) Bush would still have won the popular vote by something like 58.27 million vs. 57.09 million for Kerry.

(4) The ballpark figure for potential vote fraud is around 1.8 million votes nationally.

This seems quite plausible. Assuming the divergence is due to fraud, most pre-election and post-election analysis remains intact:

(1) The Republicans had a national strategy, whereas the Dems fought battleground only.

(2) Overall Republican GOTV work was way superior.

(3) The Republican base stuck to Bush in spite of the bad track record. That means that the 'values' issue is indeed huge (but didn't decide the election).

(4) Kerry could have won much bigger, and indeed by a fraud proof margin, if he had heeded Clinton's advice on the same-sex marriage referenda.

(5) Last but not least: Double-check the numbers and correct me where I am seriously wrong, since I did this quickly...