I have thought all along that the definitive lens through which to view the Electoral College race is by starting with the states won by Al Gore in 2000 and then figuring out where Kerry could get enough additional states to bring him to 270.
As virtually anyone savvy enough to be a Kos visitor would know, the Gore states today provide a total of 260 Electoral Votes (EV's). This is down from 267 in 2000 due to the reallocation of U.S. House seats after the 2000 Census (each state's EV's equal the state's U.S. House seats plus two for the U.S. Senators).
The Gore states fall neatly into three categories in terms of his winning margin:
BIG MARGIN (10% or more)
RI, NY, NJ, MA, MD, IL, HI, DC, DE, CT, CA, VT
MEDIUM MARGIN (5%)
WA, PA, MI, ME (As a memory aid, just remember "WAPAMIME")
SMALL MARGIN (2% or less)
MN, IA, WI, OR, NM
I will be drawing upon http://www.race2004.net for current state polling numbers in my analysis below.
Other than some periodic pesky polling numbers in NJ and (more recently) HI, the "big margin" states look great for Kerry. In NJ, a week ago, three polls gave Kerry margins between 6-8. Now, there's one new poll (Quinnipiac) showing a 46-all tie. The latter is
probably an outlier, but there's no way to know for sure. Even still, 46% is not good for an incumbent.
In HI, two recent polls, showing a 43-all tie and a 46-45 Bush lead, in what is considered a safe Democratic state have gotten some attention. Hardly any polls were taken all year, as presumably no one thought HI would be competitive. According to recent articles, the Kerry campaign didn't seem too concerned, but some of the Democratic-leaning outside groups were looking into running ads (and may have done so already).
The strong likelihood is that Kerry will retain all the "big margin" Gore states.
Regarding the "medium Gore" or WAPAMIME states, a couple of days ago, I would have said that all are virtually sewn up for Kerry. WA still looks like a "cakewalk" for Kerry, as Bush is no longer campaigning there. ME, after some tight polls over the summer, looks safe for Kerry, too.
In MI, according to the Zogby tracking polls, a 10-point Kerry lead just vanished in three days:
http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/10/27/195824/32#comment_top
(Scroll down on the MyDD comments page to get some specific daily breakdowns.)
Polls a few days ago from Rasmussen and EPIC/MRA gave Kerry 5%+ leads and even Mitchell Research, which earlier had shown a Bush lead, showed Kerry pulling ahead 45-44. Bush has been campaigning heavily in MI now. Do his polls also show him gaining? Is it desperation because Bush is worried about Ohio? Is it a "head fake" to try to confuse Kerry? I would still say MI leans Kerry, but we'll need to see new polls.
PA has also tightened up some. However, of the six most recent polls (all Oct. 25 or more recent), Kerry leads in four, one is tied, and one has Bush +2. I would say it still leans Kerry.
If Kerry does not sweep the medium/WAPAMIME states, he's probably toast; not only would the loss of MI or PA cost big EV's, but it would probably indicate an adverse national trend. I'm not saying Kerry will lose any of these states; just that there's some tightening in MI and PA (which could be outliers).
Finally, we have the Gore "small margin" states...
First, the good news. OR, from Gore's small-margin category, seems safe for Kerry. ALL the polls of the last 10 days have Kerry ahead, usually by substantial margins (only a GOP poll and one by Mason-Dixon, whose polls have taken a pro-Bush direction this year, have Kerry's lead as being small).
MN's recent polls are a mixed bag, with Kerry leading in some, but not all. Two things to note: Even in the polls most favorable to Bush, he is not exceeding 48%; a common standard is that an incumbent needs to hit 50% to be safe, as most undecideds usually break for the challenger. Second, in the poll that has Bush ahead 47-44, Nader is polling much higher than in other MN polls.
In IA, Zogby's daily tracking poll (actually a moving average of the previous four days' polls) has Kerry pulling into a 45-all tie in the Hawkeye State, better than how Kerry had been doing in the Zogby poll and in other polls. That Bush is polling between 45-48 in some polls is a good sign for Kerry, but we'll need to see some new polls to get a sense of things.
In WI, Kerry has exploded to a four-point lead in the latest Zogby reading. The only other recent data come from a GOP firm that has skewed pro-Bush (compared to other firms' polls) all election season. Other, older polls show it tight. Again, let's see some new polling.
Finally, the most recent NM polling, sparse as it is, shows Bush up 3-4 points, but not hitting 50%. Certainly, Kerry supporters will not want him to lose any Gore state, but if Kerry can make it out of this set of states losing only NM (5 EV's), this can be made up for by winning one or more sizable Bush 2000 states.
SYNTHESIS
If Kerry wins all the Gore states, he's at 260 (any loss of a state above obviously necessitates adjustment of the 260 EV number).
Kerry looks to be in good shape in NH (a 2000 Bush state), bringing him (potentially) to 264.
OH, a Bush 2000 state with 20 EV's this year, looks promising for Kerry. The movement in the Zogby tracking poll has been to Kerry (from 5 down to nearly 2 up) and Kerry has led in recent polls from the L.A. Times (whose result may be overstated), American Research Group, and Survey USA. The OH polls are not unanimous, but clearly seem to be trending toward Kerry.
WV (5 EV), which I've referred to as the "forgotten state," was won by Bush in 2000 and had Bush with a fairly comfortable lead in the polls during the summer. Some recent polls (but nothing after Oct. 18) have shown Bush's lead closing to 2-3 points. The lack of any signs of aggressive Kerry action to win the state suggest his internal polls may not show much promise. Who knows? I would just think that if Kerry is doing well in OH (and PA), nearby WV could be showing similar trends.
Of course, we must discuss FL. There's been a ton of polls from Oct. 24-27. Other than separate L.A. Times and Gallup Bush +8 outliers (and a rumored, but never published, CBS poll outlier in Kerry's direction), the polls range from Bush +3 to Kerry +3. It's anybody's guess what happens.
Two other quick notes on Bush 2000 states:
Zogby has steadily shown Kerry up in CO (9 EV). Even many (if not most) Kerry supporters are skeptical and the candidate himself does not appear to be targeting the state aggressively.
Though Zogby has Bush safely up in NV (5 EV), two other polls (Rasmussen and Research 2000) have Kerry within 2.
