Having been a Gephardt supporter for months here...I'm finding that this unexpected polling situation out of Iowa is actually good news...
maybe it runs against "Kosventional Wisdom," but, if you are ABB....and really want the Democrats both to win the Presidency in 2004 and revitalize the party for 2004 and beyond....what's happened in the last week in Iowa...
actually makes the best of what was a bad situation....here's why....
#1: the Primaries are working.
To win primaries you have to convince voters to vote for you. To do this you have to
a) convince them that you are the best candidate for them personally
b) convince them you can win
c) get them motivated enough to get out and vote for you
In Iowa this is magnified by the fact that voting in a caucus requires more than just showing up...and so there's an "extra weight" when folks say..."I like candidate A"...it means they are willing to publicly stand up for candidate A. A pretty big deal, in my book.
So. The fact that the polls have moved and are moving...and the fact that Gore's endorsement and Harkin's endorsement didn't just 'put this in the bag' for Howard Dean is a good thing. It means that folks are taking this thing seriously and making up their own minds.
That's good for all of us.
#2: Edwards upward surge is great for our Party.
There's a ton of folks who like John Edwards, and for good reason.
He's conducted himself well. Good policy statements. Straight-ahead, common sense campaigning. A positive message that's an alternative to George Bush. And a combination of personal charisma and history that has broad appeal.
I've argued all along that he should be on the ticket...but at this point, it's more than that...
Edwards, by staying positive, by reading the mood of the voter so well...has shown our Party an alternate vision of the methodology we will have to use to kick GWB out of office....less angry and more...broadly appealing.
Whether or not Edwards is the nominee, Karl Rove is looking at these poll numbers and feeling quite queasy right now. What's happening in Iowa for John Edwards is exactly the kind of surge that could sweep George Bush out of office. And a major argument for all of us to keep him in the public eye through this November....
#3: Dick Gephardt's loss is all of our gain...
I'm a Gep man. Still could be. I think he'd be the best candidate to debate George Bush. And I think that Micheal Crowley's piece in TNR (yes, this Kossack still reads it) was right on the mark.
But, Dick's job was to get people excited about him in Iowa...instead, he's circled the wagons.
Gep could still win this caucus. He's stable at the polls...and has a great machine...but all of us know that even if he wins it...the story coming out of Iowa has changed...
it will be about what we Democrats are hungry for... what kind of leader and energy we want...
a Dick Gephardt win, unless the poll numbers change drastically, would be modest in a state where he needed strong....
regardless. Our party needed and continues to need a pragmatic, midwestern populist who can speak to moderates on foreign policy and to working people on jobs and trade...Dick Gephardt has done that, and the fact that his support has not withered speaks to his value, whether as our candidate or in some other capacity.
#4: Dean might win / Dean might lose
but, either way....the fact that Iowans have shown that they are serious about looking at all the candidates for themselves and making up their own minds is actually good news for Howard Dean.
It means that IF he wins the nomination it will because of substance not hype....voter motivation not high powered endorsement....and because he's the consensus "best Democrat for the job".
I've never been on the Dean wagon. I've read alot of Kosventional Wisdom or "KW" to the effect that Dean had this thing in the bag, the polls were in and the other jokers should give up the ghost...
well, now that things look a bit tough for Dean, let me say this:
Howard Dean, if he is to be the nominee of the Democratic Party will have to do the same thing that every other candidate has to do...convince primary voters to vote for him.
He may convince enough of them in Iowa to win this thing yet. But that being said...
this is a good situation. It's the way it's supposed to work. And, if Howard Dean responds to this challenge with half the ingenuity that he's shown so far...he will put up one hell of a fight...
that's good for all of us. And as someone who is not a Dean supporter, it will make it much easier for me to support him ultimately as the nominee if he wins it. I am sure I am not the only person who feels this way.
#5: You shouldn't skip Iowa, advantage Kerry over Clark...
General Clark is sitting out one great opportunity right now. It may work out for him, especially if he ends up with Edwards as his VP. Time will tell.
But, with Iowa turning into a fight for the history books...and a battle of significance....Wesley Clark again cannot say that "he was there in the scrum with the other Democrats"...
that's a big deal. If Kerry wins Iowa...well, it's a huge deal.
#6: Finally, the fact that Dean and Gep have..."gone positive"...partly in response to Edwards and partly because Iowans were getting fed up...
speaks hugely to where we are at as a Party and a nation right now. I hope and pray this thing stays positive and constructive for good.
We may be headed to long, hard fought primary season...one that will only be settled at a convention in Boston that will be a "thriller"...
if that is the case, we Dems had better figure out quick how to make our diversity out strength.
It's a lesson all of us could remember now and again.