According to the Wednesday (1/14/2004) San Jose Mercury News,
"Dean and Clark gaining in California."
PPIC POll Summary (compared to 9/03):
DEAN - 31% (21)
CLARK - 14% (3)
UNDECIDED - 25%
ALL OTHER < 10%
Other significant points in Laura Kurtzman's article are:
"Dean's strength in California is at odds with polls in Iowa and New Hampshire that show his lead eroding after weeks of attacks by rivals and elements of the Democratic Party establishment.
"Analysts warned against reading too much into the California numbers, because many Democrats have not yet tuned in to the race. They have been distracted by the recall and the state's budget problems.
"They don't have the big picture yet," said Mark Baldassare, the poll director. "I wouldn't be surprised to see these numbers change, especially as people get to know the candidates.""
I emphasize the following:
"Echoing a Field Poll released Wednesday, the Public Policy results contain one potential danger sign for Democrats, who have carried the state in every presidential race since 1988: more Californians voicing interest in re-electing President Bush.
"The overall poll of 2,002 likely voters, which was conducted Jan. 3-11, found that 45 percent said they would support Bush and 45 percent said they would support an unnamed Democrat. Ten percent were undecided or would choose someone else. In September, the PPIC found more support for a Democrat than for Bush, 45 to 40 percent.
"Bruce Cain, a political scientist at the University of California-Berkeley, said Democratic support is likely to rise after the nominee is chosen. But he said Democrats should not assume they will hang on to California.
"I don't see how any Democrat can take anything for granted, given what happened in the recall," he said."
I point this out, as my experience among my immediate circle here in northern California is that they've been punched in the stomach. It's been hard to get them up and fighting again.
Many Democrats dismiss the effects of the recall, and give me the usual blah-blah about 'give him (AS) a chance', etc. The fact is, they are shying away from fighting for Democratic values and causes. So, while I think Dean can win the California primary, I also think it is going to a hard struggle after that.
In California, the important thing is, can we rally around beating up the Guv on Mar 2? The recall is still an issue, and cannot be separated from the Presidential primary.