I was cruising for my tu status when I ran across this old diary, back from mid February 2005. (It's old only in the blog world). In this diary I'm predicting the fall of the Republican Party from power. I thought it would take 2 years, it's only been three months.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/2/17/124611/543
It's not really my point to be my own diary pimp, I just think some of what I wrote was slightly prophetic. Take a look and let me know what you think.
So, from way back in 02/17/05:
"Breakup of Republican Iceberg
I like to think of the Republican Party as an Iceberg--large, white, cold-hearted, not too swift, can't change direction, and like really large icebergs, often runs aground for years at a time.
The good news? It's about to break up.
Disclaimer: The next three years of the Bush Administration are going to be fraught with tragedy, unnecessary deaths, unnecessary wars, alienation of our traditional allies, despoiling of the American Wilderness (and any other wilderness the greedy bastards can get their hands on). blatant exploitation of the middle and lower classes, budget deficits and economic problems that will make the last few years look like a cake walk.
That said, I'm committing myself to laugh at the Republicans as often and as loudly as possible. Why? For one simple reason:
THEY'RE GONNA GET THEIR COLLECTIVE ASS HANDED TO THEM ON A SILVER PLATTER.
Here's the deal. Gannon/Guckert is just the tip of the iceberg--and the SCLM is lapping it up. It's getting air play, and the SCLM is embarrassed they didn't break the story. It's not THE story, but it is A story. And it means the SCLM will pay more attention to blogs looking for good stories in the future.
It's a symptom of a weakened Republican party that Gannon/Buckert is still in the press.
There are other signs of the begining of the "End Times" for the Thugs. Regarding the media:
Soros and Buffett are investing in Media. MSNBC has a reporter blog that the war is all fucked (maybe showing they don't really want to be Fox). Air America continues to grow because people listen and that makes it profitable. Jon Stewert has a new production deal. The Republicans have been paying people to report favorably on their programs. (My god, how embarrassing to both the Republicans and the SCLM!) Freepers are eating their own. And, not unimportantly, it appears at least some of the national Dems are getting their media shit together.
Result? The SCLM may move a little in our direction. Any movement toward the left will reap HUGE rewards among the voter base for us.
Another symptom? The legendary republican/Bushco discipline is breaking down.
Gail Norton and some other alleged republicans have come out and said the lunatics have taken over the asylum.
Radical right Christians are PISSED that Bushco is not rewarding them.
Bush is a lame duck, with extreme ideological policy programs that are absolutely gonna kill moderate republicans in 2006 and 2008. Congresspersons and Senators are gonna be running from Bush in DROVES! All discipline is gonna break down among the congress. In two years, it'll be lucky if Bush can swing 40% of the congress to vote for a dog catcher. (Ok, it may take a little longer).
Moderate Republican Senators (as least the remaining ones) are under pressure from the right wing to conform or face opposition? The result? They won't conform--they certainly haven't, yet. They'll either stand and fall, or switch parties.
Bushco has always depended upon extreme discipline from its insiders to push its agenda, rather than on the strength of the agenda itself. Bushco has lavishly rewarded folks who have shown themselves loyal. And Bushco has been vindictive and ruthless with insiders who turn and tell secrets. (Look at what happened to Paul O'Neil after his wonderful tell all book). The problem with this model is that if there are no rewards to offer, and the threats are no longer credible, there's nothing to keep the troops in line.
The joy of this is that it is a positive reinforcement model. The more moderate republicans take a stand in opposition to Bushco, the less credible Bushco threats of retaliation become, the more moderates will take a stand.
This process has already started!
So what does this all mean? Well, I'm glad you asked!
Dems, barring some extremely unfortuante unforenevents, are at their nadir. Everything is up for Democrats from here.
Conversely, Republicans are at their apex of power, at least for several years. Sure, they've got some wildly important appointments to make, (and they'll get them) but their legislative program is gonna be a mish-mash of pork that will be poorly received and won't last til the next president.
It's been easy for republicans to enforce discipline because they were all committed to winning, and with incremental success, they WON. Positive reinforcement worked to enforce that discipline and convince thugs there were rewards to be had in the future. For the last 20 years the republicans have based their power upon a diverse and unnatural politcal amalgam. Now that they have complete power everybody wants their rewards. But there aren't enough rewards to go around. Indeed, some of the promised rewards are mutually exclusive. So the corporate/christo-fascists are gonna start screaming at each other and the coalition is gonna break up.
3a) Corrollary, as rewards to extreme conservates are doled out republicans will be left as a party of extreme right wing idealogues. OK, they already are controlled by the right wing. However, it will become more obvious in the next couple of years as the radicals seek payback for thier years of support.
As the Republican Iceberg breaks up, it will lead to more significant internal conflict. It's already happening in Texas. The SCLM just LOVES internal conflict, and it will get a lot of coverage. This will factionalize the party, divide the "rewards of loyalty" and lead to conflicting messages about republicans in the press. They will appear weak. Not winners. They'll look like, well democrats. Nobody likes a weak party and it'll cost the republicans votes. And, more importantly, it will giver encouagement and solace to democrats. We just LOVE to watch them fight amongst themselves.
Democratic discipline is on the rise. It has to be. But it looks like Dems realize that to win power, you have to compromise just a little. This lead to more coherent messages and more success for the party.
It doesn't look like it now, but the big MO, (not Lieberthing) will be with the DEMS for the next several years. Moderate success will be ours, but it will be unexpected. We'll be the underdogs and every victory, no matter how small will be a morale booster and reinforce party discipline. Ironically, WE will look like winners. Everybody loves underdogs. Everybody loves winners. People will, finally, listen to the Dem meassage. And if we control the message how can they not vote for us?
One last important point. This isn't gonna be easy. It takes a lot of work. If the Dems don't keep it together, all bets are off. But all the signs, right now, are positive. And if I'm even half right, it'll be FUN to be a Democrat and
People like fun.
