There are two articles in the St Pete Times over the last few weeks that merit consideration by the rest of the country.
Before getting to each of these articles, let me give an overview of Florida. In essence, there are two competing schools of thought:
--It is trending Republican: supporters of this view point to Bush's 5 point win in '04, and the statewide trouncing that Dems suffered in '02. Behind this trend, some like Barone would argue, are migration patterns. While the argument is complex, in a nutshell the case for the GOP argues that those moving to Florida are mostly Midwestern and rural. In short, they are conservatives. Advocates of this school also argue that in percentage terms the counties that are growing the fastest are also the most Republican.
--It is trending Democratic: Here the argument is really threefold:
- As the percentage of non-Cuban hispanics increases, the state will inevitably become more democratic
- The counties that are growing the fastest in NUMERICAL terms tend to be more Democratic or are in the I-4 corridor. See the Emerging Democratic Majority for the detail of this argument.
*While it is true McBride lost in '02, the key is that Bush was under 50 for much of the race. Only McBride's poor performance in the debates caused his loss. Moreover, the Castor numbers in '04 are a much better indication of the the true nature of the state than the Bush/Kerry numbers.
Now to the first article entitled "Florida Republicans see trouble brewing" Here are the payoff paragraphs
"There's been a phenomenal reversal of fortune down there," said Matt Towery, who runs an Atlanta-based polling and online media firm. Having completed a March 6-9 poll of 1,000 registered voters in Florida, the former Republican lawmaker and Newt Gingrich aide sees a seismic shift in Florida politics.
"These numbers are like a tsunami. There has been a literal sea change, a potential realignment toward the Democrats in Florida," Towery said. "I think the state's gone from being pretty safe Republican to being pretty safe Democrat. And it's because the independents who kept (both Bushes) in office have shifted something like 70 percent to the Democrats."
http://www.sptimes.com/...
More detail, available only on the St Pete Times Blog:
When asked whether they'd prefer Republicans or Democrats to control Congress after November's elections, 48 percent said Democrats and 38 percent said Republicans. Only 20 percent of independents wanted Republicans in control.
--Not even Jeb Bush could beat Bill Nelson at this point. In a hypothetical matchup 48 percent supported Bill Nelson and 44 percent Bush. Back in November, the same pollster found Bush beating Nelson by 5 percentage points.
So what, you might say: one poll. But this is coupled with the first large scale GOP revolt against jeb!.
Jeb! had asked for a $1.5 Billion dollar tax cut. But the Senate is in the process of revolting - and wants to target the money for Education.
He is the key thread from the Palm beach Post:
"Lee's mention of national rankings for spending brings back a touchy point for Bush. Last fall, the Constitution Accountability Commission, co-chaired by former state Comptroller Bob Milligan, released a report critical of the state's public education system.
The report ranked Florida 46th among the 50 states in per-pupil spending. Milligan, a Republican, called the statistics a "political hand grenade" and said the state was doing a disservice by concentrating on student performance on the FCAT."
Lee, by the way, is the State Senate President, and a candidate for statewide office.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/...
What do these articles mean? I think they represent a break in the pattern of Florida Politics that has been coming for some time. To show why this break is happening, here is what my local House Member promised:
*To support increased spending for public schools
*To support increased funding for health care.
Oh, he is a Republican. But that would be hard to tell if you looked at his campaign brochures. The truth is that in many places in Florida issues like Education and managed growth are moving the state ever so slightly to the left.
The question is whether the state Democratic Party can take advantage of it.
And that is the subject of another diary..
Update:
Here is a link to CNN and the fastest growing counties.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/15/real_estate/fastest_growing_US_counties/index.htm?cnn=yes
Lee and Pasco are the fastest growing. I know about Pasco - it turning into an exurb of Tampa. And the traffic is just increadible. The people who are moving there, though, do not stike me as likely Dems.
Update #2
What is really missing here is an analysis of abortion. The right argues that the Gay rights agenda contributed to Bush's win in '04 (I have my doubts about the role this really played..)
The reverse may be very true in '06. Florida is a pro-choice state. If abortion comes to dominate the agenda - and I very much think it might - the GOP could be in VERY big trouble here in Florida and elsewhere.
