It is hard to sort out what is going on in North Korea, and what Bush's intent is. But he is certainly taking some very provocative actions. In the past week or so,
President Bush,
Secretary of State Rice,
Scotty McClellan,
U.S. National Intelligence Council chairman David Gordon, Special envoy for negotiations with North Korea Joseph DeTrani and Gen. Richard Myers, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff have all contributed to a growing dogpile of insulting and saber-rattling remarks directed at North Korea and its already-paranoic leader Kim Jong Il. It is too bad (not really) that first-team anti-Kim Jong Il ranter John Bolton is on the sidelines at present (pretending to actually be an effective diplomat) or we would undoubtedly be treated to some extraordinarily newsworthy but highly-dysfunctional baiting pyrotechnics. But even without Bolton's worthy contributions,
the rhetoric of the Bush administration is at a level not seen since the end of the Cold War.
Now Bush has made an extraordinary unilateral request of China, the big boy on the block:
Turn off North Korea's oil.
More below the jump
History (remember those classes at Yale?) teaches us that this sort of thing can be viewed as an act of war (hmmm, "Day of Infamy" ring a bell?). Of course, China immediately declined to carry the US water, citing "possible damage to the pipeline." As in, "go soak your head."
The effect of these remarks and overt efforts are to add materially to the obstacles preventing meaningful talks. New conditions are popping up on a weekly basis, in reaction to the latest "transgression" by the other side.
It remains possible that most of the "crisis" on the Korean peninsula is ginned-up dog-wagging. Some sources in South Korea and in the US intelligence community are not going along with the ballyhooed prospect of a nuclear detonation. The central issues revolve around intelligence analysis of photographs of a tunnel, which is apparently now being filled in, However, an unidentified senior South Korean official quoted by the Joongang daily was skeptical, saying Seoul had been aware since the late 1990s that a tunnel was being dug in the area. "
The other evidence cited by "un-named US officials" is the construction of what has been interpreted as a viewing stand. Hmm....a viewing stand. For an underground nuclear test. hmmm. Now Kim Jong Il may be nuts, but are the intelligence geniuses trying to sell the idea that they think/he thinks this is like a state function or something???? The NYT has quoted an (obviously) unnamed source as expressing the opinion that nothing new had appeared on US spy satellite images.
We may or may not learn North Korea's intent, unless, of course, a weapon is exploded. That may not be a good enough solution for the Bush administration. Foiled in his attempt to cut of North Korean oil, Bush's next step is uncertain, but in all likelihood the negotiation process is now permanently queered. Some sort of perfunctory vilification at the UN would seem likely, in the guise of an attempt at constructive diplomacy. What would be next? blue screen footage of "poor North Koreans" carrying kitties and Doritos?...a coalition of the US, Mauritius, the Maldives, a church in North Carolina, and the Colorado Springs Chamber of the Godfull....? or are the neocons ready to launch a demonstration of the ultimate US power?
