Research 2000 for Daily Kos, New York's 23rd District, 10/19/09-10/21/09, Likely Voters, MoE +/- 4%
Bill Owens (D) 35
DeDe Scozzafava (R) 30
Doug Hoffman (C) 23
As promised earlier in the week, DK polls the contentious three-way battle in upstate New York to replace Republican Congressman John McHugh. Our findings, as it happens, mirror fairly closely the results of the other public poll (PDF file) in the race, which was released last week by Siena College.
Democrat Bill Owens is rapidly becoming the beneficiary of a brutal schism between the GOP and movement conservatives, and it is growing more plausible that the Democrats may pick up yet another House seat as a result.
Furthermore, there appears to be little chance of a truce--bear in mind that this poll was conducted before right-wing royalty in the forms of Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann decided not to endorse the Republican nominee, casting their lot with the far-right insurgent candidate.
Remarkably, given that the district has a 42-32 Republican edge in self-indentification, it is the Democrat that has the most positive split in his favorabilities in this poll. Owens sits on a +9 favorability (33-24), which is slightly better than Hoffman at a +8 spread (27-19), and considerably better than Scozzafava, whose favorability rests at present at a +3 spread (38-35). In a potentially perilous sign for the Republican nominee, with only two weeks until Election Day, Scozzafava does not even draw a favorable reaction from the majority of Republicans (49-23).
In another stat that should make the GOP very nervous, Owens holds his five-point lead, despite the fact that the undecided vote remaining in the race (which is one-in-eight voters) is disproportionately Democratic and disproportionately young.
Furthermore, if Scozzafava is hoping on a Hoffman fade to bring her home, she might be left wanting: only 9% of Hoffman's supporters declared Scozzafava as their second choice. While better than Owens (who only nabbed 3% of the Hoffman vote), it is still far from offset by the much larger segments of the Hoffman vote who would either stay home, or remain undecided.
This poll just furthers a series of news cycles that have been simply awful for the GOP nominee. And as FEC reports filed yesterday made clear, Scozzafava is not just trailing her electoral rival in the polls. Looking at campaign totals filed yesterday (from the beginning of the campaign until October 14th), Scozzafava actually is running third with $250K net raised and just $40K on hand. Owens leads the field (with room to spare) with $503K raised and $128K on hand. Hoffman is actually in second in the money chase with $307K raised (albeit with a $102K loan to his own campaign). Hoffman also leads Scozzafava in cash-on-hand. This trend has continued, according to the latest numbers from 48-hour reports which have been filed since the 15th.
Clearly, the right-wing schism over Scozzafava is not just hurting the GOP nominee in the polls.
What's worse, she has only ten days to right the ship before Election Day dawns.
