On Tuesday, we learned Maine Republicans would dump Olympia Snowe in a primary challenge vs. a conservative. One day later, TPM reported that the social conservative group Family Research Council would also support a primary challenge against Snowe.
"Well of course there is an audience that would love to see Olympia Snowe out of office, within the ranks of social conservatives, that's for certain," said Mackey.
A new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) found that a generic conservative challenger would lead the moderate Snowe in a Republican primary by a whopping 59%-31% margin.
"I think a couple years ago, we wouldn't have thought it was possible," said Mackey. "However, those numbers are interesting, and I think those numbers might just track the fact that a lot of Americans are waking up to the liberal policies, what they mean and how they're playing out. And it may be affecting her, with her votes for the stimulus, and breaking from her party. And we would like to see a conservative have a chance to remove her from office up there."
If the results in NY-23 didn't make it clear to Snowe that the odds are against her political survival in the GOP, then these bits of information should help push her along that path. Her best shot at staying in the Senate is to switch to the Democratic Party, and at the very least voting for cloture on a health reform bill with a public option.
Snowe isn't up for re-election until 2012, giving her 3 years until she next faces voters. Unlike Arlen Specter who made the switch in the middle of his re-election campaign, if Snowe made the switch now she'd have enough time to stave off a progressive primary challenge by proving her bona fides to a Democratic electorate.
If she dithers, however, she will almost certainly end up supporting a Republican filibuster of the public option, and once she does that, she won't have a serious path forward in the Democratic Party.
