There was an important diary by TheFatLadySings, which fell down the list, about Goldman Sachs telling private insurers how much they'd expect to profit under these four possible scenarios below:
- No reform (by far the best possible scenario, according to Wall Street). Insurance earnings are projected to increase by 10% from 2010-2019 while stocks rise an additional 59%;
- The "base" scenario deemed most likely to pass by Goldman execs: a version similar to the Senate Finance Bill (no public option). Insurance earnings are projected to increase by 5% from 2010-2019;
- The "bull" scenario (no public option): a more "optimistic" projection "for reform implementation, which might result from moderation of provisions in the current SFC plan, or result from changes prior to the major implementation in 2013." Earnings are projected to increase by 9.5%;
- The "bear" scenario: a health care reform bill similar to the House version with strict regulations and a public option. Earnings are projected to decrease by 1%.
Seriously, no health insurance reform means that Wall Street would continue to see an increase in profits for private insurers such as Aetna, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Cigna, Humana, UnitedHealth, and WellPoint. It's a dream for them if the status quo continues.
However, they still expect a profit of 9.5% if the Senate Finance Committee bill passes with significant changes to the provisions and on regulations as well. It means the SFC bill would have to be weakened even further for private insurers to expect a profit of 9.5%, so the lobbying is going on furiously within the halls of the Senate to see which provisions they can weaken.
Even if the Senate Finance Committee bill passes largely unchanged, with no weakened major provisions, the private insurers will still expect to see a minor profit of 5%.
And guess what decreases the profits of these private insurers? A public option, even one that's based on negotiated rates with providers, will decrease the profits of private insurers by 1%. It's why they're fighting tooth and nail to strip the public option out, and to help out their allies in the Senate with a triggered state-based co-op in case the opt-out on the public option doesn't get the votes.
Also, in the report on page seven by Goldman Sachs on Wall Street, they expect the public option to capture:
the majority of coverage expansion under reform as well as some of the industry's current market share.
That's funny, because we've come up with the same estimate as well in our projected scenarios for the public option, which you can read over there as to why we're still fighting for the public option as a long-term campaign with POP.
They're fighting tooth and nail on this issue, and so are we. You guys have us to fight for the public option, and we need you to keep up the calls to the House today to find out where your Progressive Member of Congress stands on the trigger and the opt-out for the public option!
Your Representative has previously committed to a public option - now we need to find out where they stand on triggers and state opt-outs in the final bill. Please call now and ask where your member of Congress stands on a real public option!
Now's the time to crack the whip on these Progressives in Congress! PLEASE CALL NOW to find out where they stand on triggers and the state opt-outs in the final conference bill. We're joining with Democracy For America and CREDO in our phone calls to Congress this week.
We'll keep on fighting for what is right, and please help support our work withPOP, which is a non-profit that engages in health care advocacy. Our efforts will continue long after this health care bill is passed. Please consider making a monthly donation to support our ongoing advocacy for health care as a human right. You can become a fan of POP on Facebook as well. You also can follow me on Twitter @slinkerwink.
