I tend to doubt there's any chance of this happening, but I'm thinking it would be smart for President Obama to concede that the Senate health care bill has serious flaws, even though on balance he believes it is a step forward on health care reform.
The basic reason is simple: it's the truth, and that's something the public appreciates from its leaders.
Assuming the basic outlines of the Senate deal hold, the legislation does a lot of good things: it enacts important regulatory reform such as ending rescissions and exclusions based on pre-existing conditions, it offers subsidies for the uninsured, it establishes community ratings so that the sick aren't discriminated against, and it achieves cost savings in Medicare.
Unfortunately, while the bill does do those good things, it fails to do a very important thing, which is control costs for people who can already afford insurance. The public option was the way to accomplish this, but it's been stripped from the bill, and nobody really believes that the trigger or the exchange will have the same sort of cost-control impact that a robust public option would have.
Given a Democratic president and three-fifths majorities in both the House and Senate, it's pretty hard to argue that this bill is as strong as it could have or should have been. But that doesn't necessarily mean it is a bad bill, relative to the status quo. It just means that the bill isn't as good as it should be. It means this bill is an imperfect improvement.
Democrats, particularly the President, should acknowledge this fact. He can make the case for the good things in this bill, but he should also concede that his ability to get a stronger bill passed was constrained by the political realities of what the Senate would deliver. In so doing, he should make it clear that this legislation is the first major step in health care reform -- not the end of the journey.
If President Obama took this approach -- saying that on balance, this legislation is good, but that it's not ultimately sufficient, he would:
- Help sustain activist energy on health care by offering institutional support to keeping the health care reform issue open.
- Put a bullseye on Democratic obstructionists by pointing to the Senate as the institution that constrained reform.
- Most importantly from a political perspective, by making it clear that he doesn't see this bill as a panacea, giving himself much-needed rhetorical distance from the bill, which isn't super-popular.
- Finally, he would avoid looking silly by praising the handiwork of Conservadems. You don't need to thank Joe Lieberman for voting for cloture in order to support this legislation. The truth is the legislation will be passed despite Conservadems, not because of them.
Given that the truth is that the fight for reform won't be over once this bill passes, wouldn't it make sense to level with the public? By doing that -- admitting that the bill has gaps that need to be filled in future legislation -- President Obama would likely strengthen his credibility on health care reform.
More than a quarter of Democrats are unhappy with the health care legislation. Indeed, one in four health reform opponents don't think it goes far enough. Instead of trying to browbeat them into supporting a bill that they think is insufficiently ambitious, it would be wise to concede that they have a point -- that this bill, while good, is not enough.
People are willing to support this bill as one important, albeit imperfect, step forward. But if they are asked to believe that this is the end-all and be-all of health care reform -- the greatest thing since sliced bread -- they will walk away, shaking their heads in disgust, especially if they are told that this is their one crack at reform.
They may know the bill is, on balance, a good thing. But they also know it leaves a major component of health care reform on the table -- cost-control. And they know that four Senators defeated their quest to achieve that cost-control, despite the overwhelming support of the public.
The smart move would be to acknowledge that there is still more to fight for, and the recognize that the entire mission hasn't yet been accomplished. Hopefully that's the direction President Obama will take. If he does, he might just end up energizing the base.
Update: A number of commenters have argued that President Obama would be wise to save this sort of commentary until after bill passage. I completely agree with that -- in fact, it is what I was contemplating. (The reason I refer to the Senate bill wasn't to suggest that he do this pre-passage, but rather that it seems that the Senate bill will be the bill that is sent to him.)
