The latest Democracy Corps Poll (D) (MoE +/- 3.1 2008 voters, +/- 3.3 2010 LV), is out, and the numbers continue to support what we've seen in the last few days; improvement seen for right/wrong track, Obama's job approval is solid, and by contrast Republicans are not faring as well. The latest Diageo/Hotline poll weighs in on that as well.
Let's start with right/wrong from this series of graphs (.pdf), because it's a great thumbnail of where we are heading. Note that right/wrong direction (38/50) is at a 3 year high. Similar data was seen on the ABC/WaPo poll from yesterday ("The number of Americans who believe that the nation is headed in the right direction has roughly tripled since Barack Obama's election" and is now 42.)
Here's a 'thermometer' reading (50 is neutral) putting Obama and Congressional Republicans in juxtaposition (63 vs. 42):
When you're that much more popular than the opposition, you win the political argument. For details, let's look at what we'll call the Big Picture: Obama's agenda, including a focus on health care, energy and education, is associated with economic recovery and has good numbers.
And by nearly two-to-one, voters concur that Obama is right to seek solutions on a range of issues, including health care, energy and education, rather than focusing solely on the economy. Independents strongly agree (61 to 35 percent with 54 percent strongly) and even moderate Republicans side very slightly (51 to 47 percent) with Obama.
Similarly strong majorities of at least 60 percent endorse the president’s argument that to balance the budget in the long term we need to make investments to restore the economy and ensure economic growth (rather than simply limiting spending) and reject the recent Republican assertion that Obama is trying to implement a radical liberal agenda after campaigning as a moderate.
Note that on the Big Picture, indies side with Obama:
and
As far as Republican attacks go, this was an interesting result:
While voters strongly agree with President Obama’s priorities and Democrats have some strong messaging on the budget (with the strongest being a message that focuses on rebalancing the tax code so the middle class pays less and the wealth pay their fair share), Republican attacks, particularly those centered on linking the budget to AIG and bailouts do have an effect, causing a slight shift in support away from Obama’s budget. The concern for progressives is that Obama’s plan might be seen as just a budget and be conflated with the unpopular bailouts of the financial and auto industries. However, when framed as part of a larger, long-term economic plan, Obama’s budget still has a small net-positive impact on the vote, even after the simulated debate that includes these Republican attacks.
Gallup (MoE +/- 3) weighs in with approval for Obama on the economy (56%, down three from Feb), foreign affairs (61%, up seven) and the budget deficit (49%, no trend.)
Guess what? Democrats approve more than Republicans, and independents are solid on the economy (56% approval) and foreign affairs (64%). They are split on the deficit, but as Gallup notes:
Therefore, this is perhaps predictably the most negative of the three dimensions tested in the poll -- although, by a slight margin, Americans are still more positive than negative about Obama's handling of the issue (49% approve and 44% disapprove).
The Diageo/Hotline poll (MoE +/- 3.5) from yesterday adds to that by looking at generic ballot, kindly provided by Hotline:
All GOP Ind Dem 3/2 1/24
Generic Dem 37% 4% 23% 81% 40% 46%
Generic GOPer 32 79 26 2 34 22
Neither 9 4 20 2 7 5
Undec 21 13 31 15 19 26
There's still a long way to go before 2010, and as we saw with NY-20, both sides still have their work cut out for them (and like NY-20, no one should read too much into this.) What the numbers do tell us is that Dems have a numerical advantage and a popular President, are splitting indies and winning the budget and agenda issues, but don't have a lock on anything.
So, when you look at the battles coming up, look at the numbers, evaluate the salesman (Obama's favorability and job approval), and keep in mind that at this point in their Presidencies, the President generally gets his way. That's particularly so when the public agrees with his priorities. The numbers say that's exactly where we are at right now.
