Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 4%.
General Election Match-Ups
Chris Christie (R) 46%
Jon Corzine (D) 39%
Undecided 15%
Steve Lonegan (R) 43%
Jon Corzine (D) 40%
Undecided 17%
First, the bad news: incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine trails both potential Republican challengers in a general election. With the GOP primary coming up, likely nominee Chris Christie has, at present, a seven-point edge over Corzine. The non-establishment conservative candidate in the race, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, enjoys a slight lead as well of three points.
There is a little bit of good news for Corzine in these numbers, however. For one thing, his numbers versus his Republican opponents appear to be holding steady, compared to other recent polling in the race. His numbers had been heading south, but there is at least some sign that his poll numbers have bottomed out.
The other bit of good news: even this close to the primary (which is next Tuesday), both of his Republican challengers remain largely undefined. Just take a look at these favorable/unfavorable ratings (no opinion is listed in parentheses):
Corzine (D) 36/55 (9)
Christie (R) 38/15 (47)
Lonegan (R) 22/13 (65)
Governor Corzine will have plenty of room to define his opponent in the general election. Half of the voters in New Jersey have no opinion of Christie, and nearly two-thirds of the voters have no opinion of Lonegan. Of course, Corzine does have one handicap—his numbers are abysmal.
Right-wing spinners have been crowing about GOP prospects in the two gubernatorial races. Predictably, they are trying desperately to tie this to some kind of "buyers remorse" over the 2008 election. The numbers make it clear, however, that Corzine’s flagging poll numbers are not indicative of some kind of anti-Democratic wave, however. Barack Obama enjoys incredible popularity in the Garden State, with 69% of voters having a favorable opinion, and only 26% of voters having an unfavorable opinion.
The primary election is next Tuesday. Corzine has several underfunded Democratic opponents that he is expected to defeat rather easily. On the Republican side, Chris Christie has a double-digit lead over Steve Lonegan, but some polling experts suspect that a low turnout primary (likely in this case) might benefit Lonegan, who has drawn a more devoted, if a bit smaller, core of supporters.
