The sun rises in the east, sets in the west, and Carol Shea-Porter continues to be targeted by the Republican party.
In one of the first big Republican recruiting successes of the cycle (in contrast to Democrats), Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta filed to run against Carol Shea-Porter.
Republican Frank Guinta, mayor of Manchester, filed paperwork with the Federal Election Commission to run in New Hampshire's 1st District.
Guinta recently announced he would not seek re-election as mayor and was mulling a run for federal office in 2010. But Guinta has not publicly announced whether he will run for the open Senate seat or for the 1st Congressional District seat.
Guinta's advisor, Mike Biundo, stressed Friday that the mayor has yet to make an official announcement, adding that one is expected in the coming week.
The NRCC has been touting a poll showing Guinta polling at 34% to Shea-Porter's 43%. If this poll is correct, it is worrying to see Shea-Porter well below 50%. However, former New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Kathy Sullivan writes that:
It's also tough to take the NRCC's "poll" seriously. It is no secret that Republicans are weighting their internal polls based on the 2004 election numbers, in their effort to convince otherwise hesitant potential candidates to make a commitment. That ignores the realities of the electoral landscape across the country. In New Hampshire, we experienced dramatic increases in Democratic registration thanks to the 2006 midterms, the 2008 Presidential primary and the 2008 general election. The 1st CD is no exception.
Weighting a poll based on what the electorate looked like four years ago is silly Last year, the Obama, Shaheen, Lynch, Hodes and Shea-Porter campaigns not only were responsible for registering more Democratic voters, they also solidified independents behind the Democratic agenda. A poll that doesn't account for these changes is worthless.
Without seeing internals for the poll we can't know for certain how the NRCC produced these numbers, but if what Sullivan's hearing is true, that nine point gap should be a good bit wider.
Shea-Porter's entire electoral history is of defying expectations, and in 2010 she'll go in as a second-term incumbent who ran middling well in 2008 -- behind Obama but ahead of Jeanne Shaheen in her district, with ample DCCC support. In 2008 she showed some fundraising chops, but her first quarter this year was weak. We can expect to see the Republicans, now with Guinta as their face, go after her hard as one of their best shots at picking up a northeastern seat. But what Democrats know is that you underestimate Carol Shea-Porter at your own peril.
