This is an exercise in reverse data mining, or 20/20 hindsight research. In order to save a lot of time I cheat. I use my eyes to input data and my brain to process it. Not quite up to Admiral Poindexter standards but I'm still learning. Perhaps the exercise was silly, but the results were interesting.
My methods works ok, but I really would like to replace the processor when I can afford it, the eyes too for that matter. Oh, and the output needs a new keyboard. The W on this one is just about trashed. :) My search and sort algorithm for this adventure consists of the classic "follow the money" (meaning see who controls the oil,) and makes the assumption that one of the primary Bush adnministration puppets, Chalabi or Allawi, will wind up in charge of it, one way or another. The exercise is to find out how. That narrows the search criteria quite a bit and minimizes eye strain and brain drain.
Inasmuch as we just heard today (a few days ago now) that Chalabi has taken over the Oil Ministry job, it may seem that I'm exhibiting only 20/20 hindsight with this exercise but feel free to ask my friends if I didn't tell them some time ago that one of these two gents would wind up sitting on the oil. This is simply an exercise in seeing how it was done so far.
Of course I can also make the prediction that in the near future a major oil company associated with the Bush administration will come up with a heck of a sweet deal on Iraqi crude. I see the ability to predict this stuff on the cheap with nothing more potent than a DSL connection as a major victory for bio data mining. I'd urge others so equipped to give it a try. It's a fun and rewarding hobby.
Background info on Chalabi and Allawi is from Wikipedia, which is quick, but hardly the ultimate in references. However, it does match what I've heard from the MSM since the war started. If anything is inaccurate just let me know and I'll correct and update. Thanks. Oh, and I screwed up on the URLs and put some above and some below their respective stories. Sorry. But here it all is. Let me know if I did this half right and you see the pattern pop out. Just remember, I ain't no Sherlock Google. -JW]
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ALLAWI
A former Ba'athist, Allawi set up the Iraqi National Accord, which carried out bombings in Saddam Hussein's Iraq and is today an active political party. In the lead up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq the INA provided intelligence about alleged weapons of mass destruction to MI6.
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On May 28, 2004, he was chosen by the council to be the Interim Prime Minister of Iraq to govern the country beginning with the United States' handover of sovereignty (June 30, 2004) until national elections, scheduled for early 2005. Although many believe the decision was reached largely on the advice of United Nations special envoy to Iraq, Lakhdar Brahimi, the New York Times reported that Brahimi only endorsed him reluctantly after pressure from U.S. officials. (In response to a question about the role of the U.S. in Allawi's appointment, Brahimi replied: "I sometimes say, I'm sure he doesn't mind me saying that, Bremer is the dictator of Iraq. He has the money. He has the signature. Nothing happens without his agreement in this country." [12] Two weeks later, Brahimi announced his resignation, due to "great difficulties and frustration".
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Later, as military situation in Iraq worsened the death toll increased, coveraged became sometimes less flattering and included descriptions suggesting Allawi was Washington's puppet (e.g. Newsweek:"Iraq's New S. O. B." [14], NYT: "Dance of the Marionettes" [15]). The BBC attributes his nomination to being "equally mistrusted by everyone" in Iraq. [16] A secret document written in 2002 by the British Overseas and Defence Secretariat reportedly stated that within Iraq, Allawi was seen as "a western stooge" who "lacked domestic credibility".
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CHALABI
Chalabi is also part of a three-man executive council for the umbrella Iraqi opposition group, the Iraqi National Congress (INC), created in 1992 for the purpose of fomenting the overthrow of Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. The INC received major funding and assistance from the United States.
Chalabi is a controversial figure for many reasons. In the lead-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, under his guidance the INC provided a major portion of the information on which U.S. Intelligence based its condemnation of Saddam Hussein, including reports of weapons of mass destruction and alleged ties to al-Qaeda. Much of this information has turned out to be false, ...
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Before the war, the CIA was largely skeptical of Chalabi and the INC, but information from his group (most famously from a defector codenamed "Curveball") made its way into intelligence dossiers used to help convince the public in America and Britain of the need to go to war. "Curveball" - the brother of a top lieutenant of Chalabi - fed hundreds of pages of bogus "firsthand" descriptions of mobile biological weapons factories on wheels and rails. Secretary of State Colin Powell later used this information in a UN presentation trying to garner support for the war, despite warnings from German intelligence that "Curveball" was fabricating claims. Since then, the CIA has admitted that the defector made up the story, and Colin Powell apologized for using the information in his speech.
The INC often worked with the media, most notably with Judith Miller, concerning her sensational WMD stories for the New York Times. After the war, given the lack of discovery of WMDs, most of the WMD claims of the INC were shown to have been either misleading, exaggerated, or completely made up while INC information about the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein's loyalists and Chalabi's personal enemies were accurate.
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OK, our exercise in data mining has so far determined that these two gents are a couple of lying, scheming Bush administration puppet shills. With me so far? Good. Next we dig into how one or the other of them gets put in charge of all the oil. Without digging into the can of worms that is US/Iraqi politics I decided that very shortly after the final government was constituted one of these fellas had to either be directly in charge of the Oil Ministry or in charge of whoever was in charge of it. That left open all sorts of possibilities for either of them getting from point A to point B, but having already determined that the only possible outcomes were that one of them would control the Oil Ministry and lacking the volumes of data that would predict which would get there and how, the only fun that was left was to trace the subtlties of the path that actually led to that result.
I'd figured that Allawi was the likely inheritor of the Oil Ministry when I saw he was running for a position in parliament but hardly likely to be much of a real force. I expected all he had to do was get into parliament and Chalabi would do the rest. But my analysis failed right where more sophisticated data mining techniques would also have failed. Allawi actually failed to get elected to parliament by the tiniest of margins. I'm sure this came as a blow to the powers that be in the Bush administration so I sat back to watch the fireworks.
First there was a nifty keen popular demonstration against voter fraud by Allawi's party and a coalition of others. But that failed to get poor Allawi shoe horned into parliament when the UN monitors shrugged and said the election looked pretty good to them. I was watching as closely as I could for signs of the next move when I started hearing bits and pieces of rumors about in country fuel shortages, so my eyes perked up and I was right with the program when:
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http://www.usatoday.com/...
Usa today: Lines form at gas stations on word of refinery shutdown
BAGHDAD (AP) -- Long lines formed at gas stations in Baghdad on Friday as word spread that Iraq's largest oil refinery had shut down in the face of threats against truck drivers, and fears grew of a gas shortage.
[Threats from whom? - JW]
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[The national election, at which Allawi failed to get a seat in parliament was held Dec. 15th. - JW]
Iraq's largest oil refinery, in Beiji, was shut down on Dec. 18 because of the deteriorating security situation in the region, Minister of Oil Ibrahim Bahar el-Ulom told The Associated Press on Friday. He said the facility "is considered one of the vital refineries in Iraq" and produces about 2 million gallons of gas a day.
As word of the shutdown spread through the country, several hundred cars waited at one of Baghdad's biggest gas station.
"After the rise in gas prices, now we have a gas shortage," said Ahmed Khalaf, 33. "I left my work early, and I don't think I will have the opportunity to return to work today because of this long line."
Ali Moussa, a 51-year-old tanker truck driver, said he and his colleagues were working in a dangerous situation.
"We demand that the government provide security and protection," he said.
[Were they given protection before? If so, what happened to it? Who was telling them they weren't safe? - JW]
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...
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Chalabi, whose government portfolio already includes heading the country's energy committee and overseeing security for oil infrastructure such as refineries and pipelines, will temporarily take the reins of Iraq's only major industry.
<snip>
"He has proven himself quite capable and experienced in dealing with all aspects of Iraq's energy sector and is well-qualified for this position," a U.S. official said on the condition that he not be named because he was commenting on an Iraqi government decision.
Based on preliminary results from the December elections, Chalabi received 8,645 votes in Baghdad, well below the threshold a top U.N. official suggested this week would be required to win a seat.
Moussawi said Friday that Chalabi could still end up in the parliament, depending on how officials interpret a technical detail of election rules relating to how remaining seats are allocated after each party meeting a specific threshold is awarded its seats.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
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Monday, Jan 3
The price increases and the mid-December closure of the country's biggest refinery led to protests in many cities around Iraq and riots in northern oil-rich Kirkuk, where police shot and killed four protesters during unrest Sunday.
Officials at the Beiji refinery reopened it Sunday nearly two weeks after shutting it down because of insurgent threats to kill drivers of fuel trucks.
"We started to supply the tankers with oil products after the government promised to secure them along the highways," said Ahmed Ibrahim Hamadi, the director of distribution at the refinery.
The decision came after the Iraqi army sent more troops to guard the tanker trucks that supply the capital, including its main storage facilities in Dora, and to other Iraqi cities.
"Well-equipped and developed Iraqi army and police forces are guarding all the tankers which are trucking oil products from Beiji refinery to Dora, to Baghdad and other provinces," said Maj. Gen. Abdul Aziz Mohamed-Jassim, director of the Defense Ministry's operations room.
http://news.yahoo.com/...
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[A bit of news I read the other day but was unable to find again indicated that for all intents and purposes Iraqi ministry posts were set in stone, as each political power group has grabbed one for themselves and will not easily let it go. Think Chalabi will stay in the Oil Ministry job? -JW]
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I just had to include this. In other newz:
The tanker Kos was also waiting for a tug at Berth number three. It finished loading two million barrels on December 20.
