Even as negotiation breakthroughs in the House (and perhaps the Senate Finance Committee) accelerate chances for a bill, the new NBC/WSJ poll says:
Support for President Barack Obama's health-care effort slipped substantially over the past five weeks -- particularly among those who already have insurance -- as Congress has struggled to finalize legislation and attention has focused on its high price, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.
In a bid to regain momentum, Mr. Obama is shifting the way he is selling his top domestic priority, focusing less on how the revamp would reduce costs and more on how it would protect those who already have insurance -- the people who need to be won over. One of the president's top advisers acknowledged Wednesday that the White House's prior focus had been unsuccessful.
In mid-June, the public was evenly divided when asked whether it thought Mr. Obama's health plan was a good idea or bad idea. The new poll, conducted July 24-27, found 42% calling it a bad idea versus 36% who said it was a good idea. Among those with insurance, the portion calling the plan a bad idea rose to 47% from 37%.
This is what Obama's political capital was for, and at the end of the day, if he gets his bill, it will stabilize support. In this poll, Obama's approval stands at 53%.
Obama Job Approval (June), MoE +/- 3.1
Approve 53 (56)
Disapprove 40 (34)
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com notes the trend has been for stable (but not growing) support for health reform, and increasing opposition.
However, when the bill is explained in more detail, support goes up.
The poll also had some encouraging news for Mr. Obama and his health-care allies. When given a fairly detailed description of the plan they are pushing, Americans registered strong approval, with 56% saying they favor the plan versus 38% who oppose it.
Many of these details, such as requiring insurance companies to cover people with pre-existing conditions, haven't been the focus of the congressional debate, which has centered on more controversial issues.
Perhaps a better way to describe this is "Obstructionists raise doubts and slow down but don’t stop health reform."
For perspective:
In July 1994, 52% disapproved of Clinton’s plan while 40% approved.
OTOH, nothing happens in a vacuum:
Americans continue to prefer a U.S. Congress controlled by the Democratic Party, albeit by an increasingly smaller edge, according to the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
By a 46%-39% margin, those surveyed said they want Democrats to maintain their majority next year—a slightly smaller margin than the 48%-39% margin in April.
Voters prefer Dems over Rs on health care 40-23 (a change from 49-13 in 2007, but still a substantial Democratic edge.) And Americans simply don't approve of Congress:
In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Congress is doing? (June), MoE +/- 3.1
Approve 24 (29)
Disapprove 63 (57)
Click the graphic for more:
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The CBS/NY Times poll has findings of 47% favorable for Congressional Democrats and 28% for Congressional Republicans, and adds:
By a margin of 55 percent to 26 percent, respondents said that Mr. Obama had better ideas about how to change health care than Republicans in Congress.
while pointing out that public anxiety about change continues to erode support.
There has been a 10-point drop in Mr. Obama’s job approval rating since a high-point in April.
And despite Mr. Obama’s efforts to address public misgivings — in speeches, news conferences, town hall meetings and other forums — 69 percent of respondents in the poll said they were concerned that the quality of their own care would get worse if the government created a program that covers everyone.
Obama Job Approval (July 9-12) (June), MoE +/- 3.1
Approve 58 (57) (63)
Disapprove 30 (32) (26)
Those are still strong numbers. By the way, more people blame Bush (30%) or Wall Street (29) for the economy than Obama (4). And most people (65) think the stimulus package has had no impact.
In any case, here's what people think:
Still, Mr. Obama remains the dominant figure in the debate, both because he continues to enjoy relatively high levels of public support even after seeing his approval ratings fall off somewhat, and because there appears to be such a strong desire to get something done: 49 percent said they supported fundamental changes and another 33 percent said the health care system needed to be completely rebuilt.
The poll found 66 percent of respondents were concerned that they might eventually lose their insurance if the government does not create a new health care system, and 80 percent said they were concerned the percentage of Americans without health care would continue to increase unless Congress acts.
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The bottom line from both polls: Americans are persuadable but are not sold on what they hear on the news. Specific plans sell, but the opposition is well financed and quite skilled at obstruction. Still, the odds are that reform will pass and a bill will emerge from each chamber, and nothing drives polls like success. Depending on the public to drive the process is fraught with difficulty. This will take White House salesmanship to get the job done.
As for regaining momentum, that’s easy and takes two steps. First, bring it down to ordinary people’s level over the August break about what it means to them (affordable medical care you don’t have to worry about losing), and second, have an actual bill to debate rather than Mike Enzi’s version of how to stop whatever is emerging. Nothing succeeds like success.
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Bonus from NBC/WSJ: remember our friend, the quitta from Wassilla?
While it should come as no surprise that 87% of Democrats said they don’t ever want Palin as commander-in-chief, some 43% of Republicans said the same thing—as well as 65% of independents.
Even 46% of self-identified conservatives said they do not want Palin as president, as well as 44% of those who voted for Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain in 2008.
At 44%, white evangelicals are the largest subgroup supporting Palin as president one day.
Quitting hasn't helped her prospects any. Even Republicans don't see her as Presidential material.
